Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, Tips & Odds
Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas
Match Preview
The model favours Puebla to win against Guadalajara Chivas, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Puebla starts the season strong, currently sitting in 5th place after one match, where they secured a victory without conceding a goal. Their positive goal difference of +1 is indicative of a solid defensive performance, which could be crucial in this upcoming match. On the other hand, Guadalajara Chivas has yet to play a match this season, sitting 8th in the standings without any points. Their recent form shows a struggle, with only one win in their last five matches, alongside two draws and two losses. This lack of competitive rhythm could hinder their performance as they look to find their footing in the league. The model provides Puebla with a win probability of approximately 60%, while projecting a narrow victory with a score of 1-0. However, a potential issue for Puebla could be complacency after their initial win, which might open the door for Chivas to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Guadalajara Chivas win as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.25 | 4.30 | 1.54 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 5.70 | 4.40 | 1.48 | 1.62 | 2.24 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.47 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 5.79 | 4.61 | 1.54 | 1.66 | 2.32 | — | — | |
| 4.31 | 3.62 | 1.61 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.44 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 5.73 | 4.40 | 1.49 | 1.62 | 2.24 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
| 5.20 | 4.00 | 1.57 | 1.62 | 2.16 | 1.61 | 2.08 | |
Betano | 5.40 | 4.45 | 1.53 | 1.65 | 2.32 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 5.50 | 4.40 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.74 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.33 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Guadalajara Chivas leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Puebla and Guadalajara Chivas, Guadalajara Chivas has won 6 times, Puebla has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Guadalajara Chivas to secure decisive victories, with two matches ending in a 5-0 and 2-0 win. Puebla's victories have been narrower, highlighted by a 1-0 win and a 3-2 win. The recent matches show that Puebla has struggled to maintain consistent results against Guadalajara Chivas, as their last win occurred in February 2022. Overall, the head-to-head record leans in favor of Guadalajara Chivas, suggesting a competitive rivalry.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | WLW |
| 4 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | DLW |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | DWL |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPuebla have won 3 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Puebla 1-1 and beat Puebla 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 5D 13L from the last 24 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Guadalajara Chivas have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 and drew with Puebla 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 6L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedPuebla4-4-2Confirmed
Guadalajara Chivas3-1-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersPuebla
No reported absences
Guadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Puebla have averaged 4.1 corners per match at home; Guadalajara Chivas 7.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
