Puebla vs Santos Laguna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Puebla vs Santos Laguna
Match Preview
The model favours Puebla to win against Santos Laguna, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Puebla currently sits in 11th place in the standings with a record of one win, one draw, and one loss from three matches. Their season has shown a balanced start, scoring three goals while conceding the same number. Notably, they have managed to secure points in their last two matches, which could bolster their confidence heading into this fixture. On the other hand, Santos Laguna finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 17th place, having lost all three of their matches this season without earning a point. With only two goals scored and seven conceded, their defensive struggles have been evident, contributing to a goal difference of -5. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, as they have not managed to secure any points in their last five matches, indicating deeper issues that need addressing. According to the model, Puebla has a win probability of 65%, with a projected score of 2-0. While Puebla's home advantage and recent form suggest they should come out on top, Santos Laguna could pull off an upset if they manage to rectify their defensive issues and find their attacking rhythm. The full methodology used in this prediction, based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Puebla have been the stronger side, winning 28% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Puebla are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Puebla vs Santos Laguna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.20 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
| 2.05 | 3.56 | 3.22 | 1.69 | 2.11 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.13 | 3.73 | 3.37 | 1.74 | 2.18 | — | — | |
| 2.09 | 3.29 | 3.04 | 1.68 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.07 | 3.56 | 3.23 | 1.69 | 2.11 | 1.57 | 2.26 | |
| 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 1.63 | 2.20 | 1.49 | 2.33 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.30 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
Superbet | 2.07 | 3.65 | 3.30 | 1.69 | 2.20 | 1.58 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.25 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Puebla and Santos Laguna is evenly matched, with both teams winning 4 times and 2 matches ending in draws over the last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tight contests, including three matches decided by a single goal. There have also been a few high-scoring games, particularly Santos Laguna's 3-2 victories. The last draw occurred in March 2022, highlighting a tendency for these teams to find a winner in their subsequent matchups. Overall, neither side has a clear upper hand in this fixture.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 7 | Puebla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPuebla have won 4 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Puebla 3-2 and drew with Puebla 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 5D 16L from the last 29 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Santos Laguna have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Santos Laguna 1-0 and lost to Puebla 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 19L from the last 29 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPuebla
No reported absences
Santos Laguna
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Quintero has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Puebla have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Santos Laguna 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Puebla have generated 0.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 28% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Puebla player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
