Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils Prediction, Tips & Odds
Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils
Match Preview
The model favours Rīgas FS II to win against JFK Ventspils, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Rīgas FS II currently sits in 11th place in the league, having played 17 matches with a record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses. They have scored 23 goals while conceding 48, resulting in a goal difference of -25. Despite their struggles this season, they recently secured a win, which could provide a much-needed boost in confidence. On the other hand, JFK Ventspils is in 12th place, with a record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses from 16 matches. They have found the net 18 times but have also conceded 28 goals, yielding a goal difference of -10. Their recent form shows just one win in their last five matches, which reflects their ongoing challenges in securing consistent results. The model output indicates a win probability leaning towards Rīgas FS II, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Rīgas FS II winning at home. However, a potential caveat is that if JFK Ventspils can improve their defensive performance, they could pose a greater challenge than expected. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Rīgas FS II have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Rīgas FS II are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.67 | 3.72 | 2.13 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 2.72 | 3.72 | 2.15 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.40 | 2.66 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Rīgas FS II leads 3-1)The head-to-head record between Rīgas FS II and JFK Ventspils shows Rīgas FS II winning 3 matches, drawing 3, and JFK Ventspils winning 1. This indicates a competitive rivalry, with a balanced number of draws and a slight edge for Rīgas FS II. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests, as seen in the three 0-0 draws, alongside a significant 5-2 victory for Rīgas FS II. JFK Ventspils last won against Rīgas FS II in October 2023, highlighting that their recent results have not favored them in this matchup.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 86 | 16 | 70 | 51 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 58 | 19 | 39 | 51 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 46 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 46 | 21 | 25 | 44 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 37 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 28 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Rīgas FS II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 31 | 56 | -25 | 15 | LWLLL |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 40 | -20 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 13 |  Tukums II | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 59 | -36 | 12 | LLLLD |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 61 | -45 | 6 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRīgas FS II have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Skanste 3-4 and beat JFK Ventspils 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 16L from the last 30 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
JFK Ventspils have won 4 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to JFK Ventspils 7-0 and lost to Rīgas FS II 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 9D 16L from the last 31 games (19% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRīgas FS II
No reported absences
JFK Ventspils
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Rīgas FS II average 1.7 goals per match at home; JFK Ventspils 1.2 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Rīgas FS II have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 27% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. Rīgas FS II player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.