RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Tips & Odds
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Match Preview
The model favours RB Leipzig to win against Hamburger SV, projecting a scoreline of 3-0. Leipzig currently sits in 3rd place in the Bundesliga after their opening match, where they secured a convincing victory with three goals scored and none conceded. Their strong goal difference of +3 reflects their attacking prowess and defensive solidity, making them formidable opponents early in the season. On the other hand, Hamburger SV finds themselves in 14th position, having lost their first match without scoring and conceding two goals. This negative goal difference of -2 highlights their struggles, particularly in defense. While they have shown some promise with a mixed form of two wins in their last five matches, their current season performance raises concerns about consistency and overall effectiveness. According to the model, RB Leipzig has a 69.3% probability of winning this match, with a projected score of 3-0. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored is at 65.6%, indicating expectations for a dynamic match. However, one caveat is that if Hamburger SV finds a way to solidify their defense and capitalize on any Leipzig errors, the outcome may not be as straightforward as the data suggests. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.2% probability.
RB Leipzig have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 RB Leipzig win as the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature RB Leipzig clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. RB Leipzig are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.41 | 4.90 | 6.40 | 1.42 | 2.80 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.35 | 5.80 | 8.40 | 1.28 | 3.26 | 1.52 | 2.36 | |
| 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.50 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.33 | 6.10 | 7.98 | 1.33 | 3.38 | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 4.84 | 6.09 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 | 1.36 | 3.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.37 | 5.89 | 8.50 | 1.28 | 3.26 | 1.52 | 2.40 | |
| 1.35 | 5.20 | 7.50 | 1.43 | 2.75 | 1.66 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 1.36 | 5.80 | 8.50 | 1.35 | 3.25 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.75 | 8.00 | 1.29 | 3.60 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (RB Leipzig leads 6-1)In the last eight matches between RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV, RB Leipzig has won six times, Hamburger SV has won once, and there has been one draw. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided contest, with RB Leipzig frequently securing narrow victories, as seen in four matches decided by a single goal. However, Leipzig also recorded several heavy wins, including a 4-0 victory in the DFB Pokal. Hamburger SV's last win against Leipzig came in February 2017, highlighting a significant gap in recent success for the trailing side.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | LWLW |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRB Leipzig have won 9 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat RB Leipzig 5-0 and beat RB Leipzig 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 3D 12L from the last 31 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Hamburger SV have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to RB Leipzig 5-0 and lost to Borussia Dortmund 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 12L from the last 29 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedRB Leipzig4-3-3Confirmed
Hamburger SV3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersRB Leipzig2
Hamburger SV3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
RB Leipzig average 1.9 goals per match at home; Hamburger SV 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
RB Leipzig have generated 2.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 7.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. RB Leipzig player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
