Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Tips & Odds
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Match Preview
The model favours FC Augsburg to win this match against Werder Bremen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Augsburg currently sits at the top of the Bundesliga after two matches, boasting a perfect record with two wins. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored seven goals while conceding just one, resulting in a strong goal difference of +6. This offensive form, combined with their recent performances, makes Augsburg a formidable opponent. In contrast, Werder Bremen finds themselves in 10th place, having played the same number of matches but only managing one win. Their season has been mixed, with four goals scored and five conceded, leading to a goal difference of -1. While they have shown flashes of potential, their inability to maintain consistency could hinder their chances against a confident Augsburg side. According to the model, Augsburg has a win probability of approximately 65%, while the projected score is 2-1. One potential caveat for this prediction is that if Bremen can capitalize on their home advantage and improve their defensive stability, they could pose a challenge. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Werder Bremen have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Werder Bremen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.36 | 3.88 | 2.85 | 1.48 | 2.43 | 1.43 | 2.62 | |
| 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.70 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 2.30 | 3.93 | 2.77 | 1.51 | 2.57 | — | — | |
| 2.26 | 3.41 | 2.54 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.38 | 3.70 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.40 | 3.94 | 2.90 | 1.48 | 2.43 | 1.43 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 3.75 | 2.77 | 1.55 | 2.52 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Augsburg leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg, FC Augsburg has won 5 times, while Werder Bremen has secured 3 victories, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches; however, Augsburg has achieved a slight edge with more wins. Notably, the matches have featured a mix of narrow victories, such as Augsburg's 1-0 and 2-1 wins, along with a few high-scoring draws, including a 2-2 tie. The last time Werder Bremen defeated FC Augsburg was in April 2024, suggesting that Augsburg has had the upper hand more recently.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 16 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWerder Bremen have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat RB Leipzig 3-1 and lost to Auxerre 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 14L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Augsburg have won 6 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Energie Cottbus 0-2 and lost to Leeds 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 8L from the last 26 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersWerder Bremen
No reported absences
FC Augsburg
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Werder Bremen have averaged 2.0 corners per match at home; FC Augsburg 11.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Werder Bremen have generated 0.95 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 7.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Werder Bremen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
