Como vs Parma Prediction, Tips & Odds
Como vs Parma
Match Preview
The model favours Como to win against Parma, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Como has made a solid start to the season, currently sitting in 6th position with four points from two matches. Their form reflects this, as they remain unbeaten, recording one win and one draw. Key statistics include scoring three goals while conceding just two, highlighting their effectiveness in attack and relative stability in defense. On the other hand, Parma is struggling significantly, placed 16th in the standings with no points from their first two games. They have yet to find the back of the net, failing to score while conceding three goals. Their recent form has been troubling, with only one draw in their last five matches and three losses. This lack of offensive production is a critical concern as they head into this fixture. The model’s output indicates a win probability favouring Como, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat is Como's challenge of maintaining momentum against a desperate Parma side that may seek to turn their fortunes around. For a deeper understanding of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains our in-house model, which evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Como have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. Parma average 0.8 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Como have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Como win as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Como clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Como are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Como vs Parma| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.24 | 6.25 | 13.75 | 1.61 | 2.36 | 2.19 | 1.60 | |
| 1.22 | 6.50 | 15.00 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 1.23 | 6.65 | 13.69 | 1.59 | 2.45 | — | — | |
| 1.21 | 5.32 | 9.45 | 1.68 | 2.21 | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 5.80 | 12.00 | — | — | 2.15 | 1.67 | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 13.00 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.26 | 6.49 | 14.20 | 1.66 | 2.43 | 2.19 | 1.62 | |
Betano | 1.26 | 6.10 | 14.50 | 1.62 | 2.37 | 2.12 | 1.67 |
BetVictor | 1.20 | 6.50 | 13.00 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 2.10 | 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Parma leads 3-2)The head-to-head record between Como and Parma stands at 2 wins for Como, 4 draws, and 3 wins for Parma over the last 9 matches. The encounters have generally been competitive, with a notable frequency of draws, as 4 of the 9 matches ended level. Scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests, with several matches finishing 1-1 or 2-1, suggesting a balanced rivalry. Como's last win against Parma came in May 2025, while Parma's most recent victory was in October 2023, indicating that both teams have had their moments but have struggled to dominate this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 8 | Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 10 | LWWWD |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonComo have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Como 2-1 and beat Como 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 11D 5L from the last 33 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Parma have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Como 2-1 and lost to Juventus 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 10D 12L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
2 playersComo1
Parma1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
G. Mucera has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Como have averaged 7.1 corners per match at home; Parma 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Como have generated 2.01 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Como player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
