Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction, Tips & Odds
Venezia vs Fiorentina
Match Preview
The model favours Fiorentina to secure a win against Venezia, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Despite both teams struggling early in the season, Fiorentina's form suggests they have the potential to turn their fortunes around. Currently positioned 19th in the league after one match, they have yet to score but have shown resilience with two draws in their last five matches, indicating they can compete defensively. On the other hand, Venezia sits at the bottom of the table in 20th place, having played two matches without securing a point. Their goal-scoring woes are evident, as they have failed to find the back of the net while conceding four goals. Their recent form has also been concerning, with only one win in their last five matches, which reflects their struggles at both ends of the pitch. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Fiorentina, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a caveat to consider is Venezia's potential for an unexpected turnaround at home, which could disrupt Fiorentina's plans. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Fiorentina have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Fiorentina are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Venezia vs Fiorentina| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.57 | 1.72 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.33 | |
| 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.59 | 1.78 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 2.61 | 3.07 | 2.36 | 1.78 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.93 | 3.44 | 2.61 | 1.81 | 2.17 | 1.56 | 2.30 | |
| 2.90 | 3.35 | 2.33 | 1.81 | 1.96 | 1.63 | 2.20 | |
| 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.30 | 1.82 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
Superbet | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.42 | 1.80 | 2.02 | 1.63 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.69 | 2.00 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Venezia leads 2-1)The head-to-head record between Venezia and Fiorentina stands at 2 wins for Venezia, 1 draw, and 1 win for Fiorentina over the last 4 matches. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with a mix of narrow victories and one draw, suggesting that matches have often been closely contested. Venezia's two victories were by a single goal margin, while Fiorentina's win was also tight. The 0-0 draw further highlights the tendency for low-scoring encounters, with no team managing to secure a convincing win in this recent sample.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | DWLLL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVenezia have won 5 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lazio 0-2 and lost to Fiorentina 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 6L from the last 16 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fiorentina have won 8 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Venezia 2-4 and lost to AS Roma 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 10D 10L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedVenezia3-5-2Confirmed
Fiorentina4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersVenezia6
Fiorentina2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. Fourneau has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Venezia have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; Fiorentina 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fiorentina have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fiorentina player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
