Napoli vs Bologna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Napoli vs Bologna
Match Preview
The model favours Napoli to win against Bologna, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Napoli currently sits in 11th place in the Serie A standings after two matches, having secured one win and one loss. Their goal difference of +1, with three goals scored and two conceded, indicates a solid start, especially considering their recent form, which includes three wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, Bologna has struggled early in the season, positioned 14th after one match, which they lost without scoring. Their current form shows two wins and three losses in their last five games, suggesting difficulties in both attack and defense. With no goals scored in the league so far, they will need significant improvement to challenge Napoli effectively. The model predicts a win probability of 65% for Napoli, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a key caveat is that if Bologna can improve their defensive solidity and find a way to score, they could make this match more competitive than expected. For a detailed understanding of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Napoli manage games at home, conceding just 1.23 goals per match. Bologna score 1.11 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Napoli have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Napoli win as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Napoli clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Napoli are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Napoli vs Bologna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.69 | 3.55 | 5.10 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.77 | |
| 1.89 | 3.62 | 4.30 | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.33 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.93 | 3.60 | 4.32 | 1.97 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 1.78 | 3.21 | 3.96 | 2.16 | 1.72 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.20 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.93 | 3.70 | 4.39 | 1.98 | 1.96 | 1.77 | 1.96 | |
| 1.67 | 3.55 | 5.20 | 2.12 | 1.71 | 2.05 | 1.72 | |
Betano | 1.93 | 3.65 | 4.35 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.10 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Napoli leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Napoli and Bologna, Napoli has won 5 times, Bologna has won 2, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a mixed level of competition; Napoli has secured several comfortable victories, including three 3-0 wins, while Bologna's wins include a notable 2-0 victory. The matches have often been tightly contested, with four fixtures ending in draws or one-goal margins. Bologna's last win against Napoli was in May 2024, suggesting they have struggled to find consistent success in this matchup recently.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | DWLLW |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNapoli have won 10 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Napoli 1-0 and lost to Napoli 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 9L from the last 31 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bologna have won 9 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Napoli 1-0 and lost to Atalanta 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 14L from the last 35 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersNapoli7
Bologna4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Bonacina has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Bonacina to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Napoli have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Bologna 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Napoli have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Napoli player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
