Lecce vs Monza Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lecce vs Monza
Match Preview
The model favours Lecce to win against Monza, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Lecce enters this match in solid form, currently positioned 8th in the Serie A standings after one match, having secured a win with a strong goal difference of +2. This early-season success highlights their defensive stability, as they have yet to concede a goal, which is crucial for building confidence going forward. In contrast, Monza finds itself struggling at 18th place, having lost both of their opening matches and conceding a total of seven goals. Their form has been difficult, with just one win in the last five matches. This lack of momentum will weigh heavily on their performance, as they aim to turn their season around and secure their first points. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Lecce, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat is that Monza could improve their performance, particularly if they manage to shore up their defence and exploit any lapses from Lecce. The full prediction method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Lecce manage games at home, conceding just 1.35 goals per match. Monza score 1.94 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.3% probability.
Lecce have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Lecce are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lecce vs Monza| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.45 | 3.15 | 2.92 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.90 | 1.85 | |
| 2.91 | 3.05 | 2.72 | 2.28 | 1.65 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
| 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 2.95 | 3.10 | 2.74 | 2.32 | 1.68 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 2.94 | 2.56 | 2.29 | 1.63 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 2.90 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.85 | |
| 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.98 | 3.12 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 1.70 | 1.87 | 1.85 | |
| 2.50 | 3.15 | 2.85 | 2.28 | 1.60 | 1.91 | 1.77 | |
Betano | 2.85 | 3.00 | 2.72 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.00 | 2.63 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lecce leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Lecce and Monza, Lecce has won 4 times, drawn 5, and Monza has won once. This record indicates a competitive rivalry, with many fixtures ending in draws and a tendency for close scorelines. Notably, Lecce has achieved narrow victories, with their wins often by a single goal, such as 1-0 and 2-1. Monza's sole victory in this span was also by a narrow margin, 1-0. The lack of heavy defeats for Monza suggests they have remained competitive, though they have not won against Lecce since 2021.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 | LWLLW |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLecce have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lecce 3-2 and lost to Lecce 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 16L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Monza have won 3 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Monza 2-2 and lost to Lecce 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 4D 7L from the last 18 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLecce4-3-3Confirmed
Monza3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersLecce3
Monza5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
V. Crezzini has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by V. Crezzini to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lecce have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Monza 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lecce have generated 1.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lecce player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
