Genoa vs Frosinone Prediction, Tips & Odds
Genoa vs Frosinone
Match Preview
The model favours Frosinone to win this match against Genoa, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Frosinone has made a solid start to the season, currently sitting in 11th place after two matches. With one win and one loss, they have scored three goals while conceding just one, resulting in a positive goal difference of two. Their attacking capabilities appear to be a key strength, as they have demonstrated the ability to find the back of the net early in the season. On the other hand, Genoa is struggling in 15th place after one match, which they lost without scoring, resulting in a goal difference of minus two. Their form over the last five matches shows two wins and three losses, indicating they have had difficulties maintaining consistency. The lack of goal production in their opening match raises concerns about their offensive capabilities moving forward. The model gives Frosinone a win probability of around 60%, with a projected score of 2-0. However, one potential caveat is that if Genoa can tighten their defence and find their scoring touch, they could pose a challenge. The full methodology for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Genoa manage games at home, conceding just 1.55 goals per match. Frosinone score 1.93 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Frosinone have been the stronger side, winning 60% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Genoa clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Frosinone are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Genoa vs Frosinone| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.76 | 3.45 | 4.70 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.68 | 1.99 | 1.84 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
| 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.13 | 3.47 | 3.62 | 2.02 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 2.08 | 3.04 | 3.13 | 1.98 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.13 | 3.58 | 3.76 | 2.05 | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.96 | |
| 1.93 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.00 | 1.77 | 1.82 | 1.92 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.35 | 3.65 | 2.05 | 1.82 | 1.78 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.90 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Genoa leads 3-2)Genoa hold the edge in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 8 meetings with 3 draws and 2 Frosinone wins. The record points to a tie Genoa have controlled for years, though the draws show Frosinone have at times kept it tight.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 7 | Frosinone | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | WWL |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 | Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGenoa have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Como 1-4 and lost to Napoli 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 13L from the last 29 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Frosinone have won 3 of their last 4 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Sassuolo 1-1 and beat Fiorentina 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 2L from the last 15 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGenoa
No reported absences
Frosinone
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Genoa have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Frosinone 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Frosinone have generated 0.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 60% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Frosinone player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
