Genoa vs Frosinone Prediction, Tips & Odds
Genoa vs Frosinone
Match Preview
The model favours Frosinone to win this match against Genoa, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Frosinone has made a solid start to the season, currently sitting in 11th place after two matches. With one win and one loss, they have scored three goals while conceding just one, resulting in a positive goal difference of two. Their attacking capabilities appear to be a key strength, as they have demonstrated the ability to find the back of the net early in the season. On the other hand, Genoa is struggling in 15th place after one match, which they lost without scoring, resulting in a goal difference of minus two. Their form over the last five matches shows two wins and three losses, indicating they have had difficulties maintaining consistency. The lack of goal production in their opening match raises concerns about their offensive capabilities moving forward. The model gives Frosinone a win probability of around 60%, with a projected score of 2-0. However, one potential caveat is that if Genoa can tighten their defence and find their scoring touch, they could pose a challenge. The full methodology for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Genoa manage games at home, conceding just 1.44 goals per match. Frosinone score 1.82 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Frosinone have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Genoa clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Frosinone are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Genoa vs Frosinone| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.76 | 3.45 | 4.70 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.29 | 3.32 | 3.32 | 1.82 | 2.02 | 1.62 | 2.16 | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.29 | 3.34 | 3.42 | 1.84 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 2.24 | 3.22 | 2.91 | 1.80 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.34 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.87 | 2.08 | 1.62 | 2.19 | |
| 1.93 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.00 | 1.77 | 1.82 | 1.92 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.13 | 1.77 | 1.91 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Genoa leads 3-2)In their last eight encounters, Genoa has won 3 matches, Frosinone has won 2, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, including three draws and only one match finishing with a margin wider than one goal. Notably, Genoa's 4-0 victory in 2016 stands out as a heavy win, while the more recent fixtures have been tighter, with the last three matches resulting in fewer than three goals. Frosinone last claimed victory over Genoa in November 2023, suggesting a recent increase in their competitive edge.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGenoa have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Genoa 1-0 and drew with Genoa 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 14L from the last 32 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 0. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Genoa 1-1 and drew with Sassuolo 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 2L from the last 17 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedGenoa3-5-2Confirmed
Frosinone4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
2 playersGenoa2
Frosinone
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Rapuano has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Rapuano to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Genoa have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Frosinone 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Frosinone have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Frosinone player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
