Benfica vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Tips & Odds
Benfica vs GIL Vicente
Match Preview
The model favours Benfica to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Benfica currently sits in 8th place in the Primeira Liga, having played two matches this season, where they secured one win and one draw. They have demonstrated strong offensive capabilities, scoring nine goals while conceding just two, resulting in a goal difference of seven. Their recent form also reflects this potential, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches. On the other hand, GIL Vicente is performing well, positioned 5th with seven points from three matches, boasting two wins and one draw. They have yet to concede a goal this season, with a goal difference of three. Their form has been consistent, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, showing they can be a tough opponent. However, their lower goals scored compared to Benfica suggests they may struggle to keep pace in a high-scoring affair. The model gives Benfica a win probability of 55%, projecting a close match with a final score of 2-1. One caveat to consider is that if GIL Vicente can maintain their defensive solidity and exploit any lapses in Benfica’s backline, they could secure a surprising result. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 29% of matches. GIL Vicente average 1.4 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.0% probability.
Benfica have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Benfica win as the most likely scoreline at 18.0% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Benfica clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Benfica are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Benfica vs GIL Vicente| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.15 | 7.00 | 18.50 | 1.48 | 2.62 | 2.35 | 1.53 | |
| 1.14 | 7.20 | 16.75 | 1.46 | 2.39 | 2.35 | 1.51 | |
| 1.13 | 7.50 | 19.00 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 2.45 | 1.53 | |
| 1.15 | 7.50 | 17.00 | — | — | 2.30 | 1.57 | |
| 1.14 | 7.50 | 17.00 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 1.16 | 8.50 | 19.50 | 1.46 | 2.39 | 2.35 | 1.53 | |
| 1.20 | 6.50 | 13.00 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 2.18 | 1.58 | |
Betano | 1.16 | 7.40 | 18.00 | 1.52 | 2.62 | 2.42 | 1.53 |
BetVictor | 1.12 | 7.00 | 17.00 | 1.47 | 2.44 | 2.40 | 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Benfica leads 9-1)Benfica hold the edge in this fixture, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings with 0 draws and 1 GIL Vicente win. The record points to a tie Benfica have controlled for years, though the draws show GIL Vicente have at times kept it tight.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 16 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBenfica have won 13 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Benfica 2-1 and beat Benfica 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 6D 4L from the last 31 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
GIL Vicente have won 1 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with GIL Vicente 0-0 and lost to Sporting CP 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 9D 7L from the last 24 games (33% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBenfica
No reported absences
GIL Vicente
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Benfica have averaged 8.4 corners per match at home; GIL Vicente 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Benfica have generated 3.10 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 68% of them. They put 8.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Benfica player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
