Estrela vs SC Braga Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estrela vs SC Braga
Match Preview
The model favours Estrela to win this match against SC Braga, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Estrela currently sits in 11th place in the Primeira Liga after two matches, having secured two draws and no losses. Their goal difference stands at zero, with four goals scored and four conceded. Notably, Estrela's recent form shows they have not lost in their last five matches, which includes two wins and three draws, indicating a level of resilience as they aim to convert draws into victories. On the other hand, SC Braga is positioned 13th, having played just one match this season, which resulted in a draw. With two goals scored and two conceded, their goal difference is also zero. However, their form in the last five matches shows they have managed two wins and three draws, suggesting they are capable of competing, but their limited game time this season may hinder their performance against a more tested Estrela side. The model output suggests a win probability of around 55% for Estrela, with the projected score being 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is that Estrela is likely to have an edge in home advantage. However, a potential caveat is that if SC Braga can find their rhythm early in the match, they may disrupt Estrela's plans. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Estrela manage games at home, conceding just 1.58 goals per match. SC Braga score 1.73 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.6% probability.
SC Braga have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 SC Braga win as the most likely scoreline at 16.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. SC Braga are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estrela vs SC Braga| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.74 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 5.80 | 3.80 | 1.57 | 1.98 | 1.80 | 1.97 | 1.73 | |
| 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.65 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 6.04 | 3.98 | 1.61 | 2.06 | 1.84 | — | — | |
| 4.58 | 3.46 | 1.67 | 1.99 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 5.50 | 3.75 | 1.57 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 5.75 | 3.80 | 1.60 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 6.03 | 3.95 | 1.63 | 2.04 | 1.85 | 1.97 | 1.75 | |
| 4.90 | 3.60 | 1.72 | 1.91 | 1.77 | 1.83 | 1.84 | |
| 4.80 | 3.60 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 5.30 | 3.90 | 1.72 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.82 |
Superbet | 5.10 | 3.85 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.82 | 1.95 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 5.50 | 3.75 | 1.55 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (SC Braga leads 3-0)In the last six matches between Estrela and SC Braga, Braga has won three times, Estrela has not won any, and there have been three draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with two matches ending in a draw and Braga securing narrow victories in two of their wins. However, Braga also recorded a heavy 4-2 win and a 3-0 win, showcasing their ability to dominate at times. Estrela's last victory over Braga remains elusive, illustrating their struggle against this opponent in recent encounters.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 15 | DDWWW |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 | DWWDW |
| 5 |  Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 11 | DLDWL |
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 11 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 | LDWDW |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstrela have won 7 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Academico Viseu 0-2 and beat SC Braga 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 12D 12L from the last 31 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
SC Braga have won 10 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with SC Braga 0-0 and lost to Estrela 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 12D 6L from the last 41 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedEstrela4-2-3-1Confirmed
SC Braga3-4-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstrela
No reported absences
SC Braga
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Estrela have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; SC Braga 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
SC Braga have generated 1.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. SC Braga player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
