Moreirense vs Benfica Prediction, Tips & Odds
Moreirense vs Benfica
Match Preview
The model favours Benfica to win against Moreirense, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Benfica currently sits in 7th place in the Primeira Liga, having played two matches this season, where they have secured one win and one draw. They have been impressive offensively, scoring nine goals while conceding only two, which reflects a solid goal difference of +7. This attacking prowess, combined with their unbeaten start to the season, positions them as strong contenders in this match. On the other hand, Moreirense is struggling at 16th place after two games, with no wins to their name. They have only managed to earn one point from a draw, while their goal difference of -4 indicates defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded six goals and scored just two. Their recent form shows one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, suggesting inconsistency and challenges in both creating and preventing goals. The model indicates a win probability of 70% for Benfica, with a projected score of 3-1. However, a potential caveat could be Moreirense's home advantage, which can sometimes lead to unexpected performances. The full methodology of this prediction, which includes analysis of expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 26% of matches. Benfica average 2.6 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Benfica have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 Benfica win as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Benfica are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Moreirense vs Benfica| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 16.50 | 7.60 | 1.14 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 13.50 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 2.22 | 1.57 | |
| 19.00 | 8.00 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 2.20 | 1.65 | |
| 16.66 | 8.70 | 1.16 | 1.42 | 2.82 | — | — | |
| 12.04 | 6.76 | 1.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 13.00 | 7.50 | 1.15 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 12.00 | 8.00 | 1.17 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 15.50 | 9.10 | 1.16 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| 15.00 | 7.00 | 1.17 | 1.38 | 2.75 | 2.00 | 1.68 | |
| 13.00 | 7.50 | 1.15 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
Betano | 16.50 | 7.90 | 1.19 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 2.25 | 1.60 |
Superbet | 14.00 | 8.00 | 1.16 | 1.45 | 2.77 | 2.22 | 1.61 |
BetVictor | 17.00 | 7.00 | 1.12 | 1.42 | 2.59 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Benfica leads 5-0)Benfica hold the edge in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 meetings with 5 draws and 0 Moreirense wins. The record points to a tie Benfica have controlled for years, though the draws show Moreirense have at times kept it tight.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 13 | Moreirense | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | LWLD |
| 16 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMoreirense have won 5 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Moreirense 2-0 and drew with Moreirense 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 13L from the last 27 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Benfica have won 8 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Benfica 0-3 and beat Aarhus 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 6D 4L from the last 31 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMoreirense
No reported absences
Benfica
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Moreirense have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Benfica 8.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Benfica have generated 3.10 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 68% of them. They put 8.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Benfica player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
