FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win against Vaprus, with a projected scoreline of 3-1. FC Levadia Tallinn is currently at the top of the Meistriliiga standings, having played 23 matches with an impressive record of 17 wins, 5 draws, and just 1 loss. Their goal difference of +43, with 61 goals scored and only 18 conceded, highlights their dominance this season. Their recent form is also strong, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. On the other hand, Vaprus is positioned in 7th place, having played 24 matches, resulting in 8 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses. They have struggled defensively, conceding 46 goals, which reflects a goal difference of -13. Their recent form shows some inconsistency, with only one win in their last five matches, accompanied by two draws and two losses. This lack of stability could hinder their performance against a strong opponent like Levadia. The model indicates a high win probability for Levadia Tallinn, and while they are expected to perform well, Vaprus could pose a challenge if they manage to exploit any defensive lapses. The full method, which uses an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 69% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.08 | 8.00 | 16.75 | 1.23 | 3.42 | 1.86 | 1.80 | |
| 1.10 | 8.00 | 14.00 | 1.22 | 3.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.13 | 8.70 | 13.26 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 6.76 | 10.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 7.50 | 17.00 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.12 | 8.00 | 15.00 | 1.28 | 3.50 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 1.08 | 7.90 | 17.50 | 1.23 | 3.42 | 1.86 | 1.83 | |
| 1.10 | 8.00 | 14.00 | 1.19 | 3.85 | 1.78 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 1.16 | 6.50 | 11.00 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.17 | 6.90 | 10.00 | 1.22 | 3.45 | 1.71 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 1.07 | 5.75 | 11.00 | 1.20 | 2.75 | 1.70 | 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus, FC Levadia Tallinn has won 7 times, with 2 draws and Vaprus managing just 1 victory. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, with FC Levadia Tallinn frequently securing wins by margins of 2 or more goals, as seen in matches like the 4-1 and 3-1 results. Although there have been a couple of draws, the overall dominance of FC Levadia Tallinn is clear, particularly given that Vaprus last won against them in August 2025.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 81 | 21 | 60 | 72 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 29 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 59 | 39 | 20 | 55 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Paide | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 51 | WWLWL |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 27 | 25 | 50 | WWLLL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 44 | LLWLW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 29 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 35 | DWLLW |
| 7 | Vaprus | 29 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 34 | LLLWW |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 29 | DLLWD |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 29 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 28 | LLWLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 29 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 65 | -43 | 19 | DLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Levadia Tallinn have won 14 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Levadia Tallinn 6-0 and beat FC Levadia Tallinn 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 29W 8D 5L from the last 42 games (69% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vaprus have won 6 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 14. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vaprus 3-2 and lost to Paide 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 22L from the last 41 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Vaprus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Levadia Tallinn average 2.7 goals per match at home; Vaprus 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 69% of their matches and averaging 2.7 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.