Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Currently positioned second in the Meistriliiga, Kalju Nomme has accumulated 44 points from 24 matches, with a solid record of 13 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +24, with 43 goals scored and only 19 conceded, underscores their strong defensive and attacking capabilities. Recent form shows Kalju bouncing back with three wins in their last five matches, indicating a return to form after a couple of setbacks. In contrast, Trans Narva finds themselves struggling at the bottom of the table in 10th place, with only 17 points from 24 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 17 losses, along with a concerning goal difference of -37, highlights significant defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 55 goals while only scoring 18. Although they have managed to secure two wins in their last five matches, their overall season performance suggests they will face a tough challenge against a more formidable opponent. The model indicates a high probability of Kalju Nomme winning this match, reflecting their superior standings and form. However, one caveat to consider is the potential for Trans Narva to capitalize on any defensive lapses, given their need for points to avoid relegation. For a more detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Kalju Nomme win as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Kalju Nomme clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Kalju Nomme are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.40 | 4.30 | 6.10 | 1.53 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.02 | |
| 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.00 | 1.57 | 2.38 | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.33 | 5.75 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.41 | 4.30 | 6.33 | 1.53 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 1.47 | 4.20 | 5.60 | 1.50 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.08 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.05 | 5.20 | 1.53 | 2.18 | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kalju Nomme leads 4-3)Kalju Nomme hold the edge in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 meetings with 3 draws and 3 Trans Narva wins. The record points to a tie Kalju Nomme have controlled for years, though the draws show Trans Narva have at times kept it tight.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKalju Nomme have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Kalju Nomme 2-3 and beat Kalju Nomme 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 9D 12L from the last 40 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Trans Narva have won 2 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Trans Narva 3-1 and lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 23L from the last 40 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKalju Nomme
No reported absences
Trans Narva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kalju Nomme average 2.0 goals per match at home; Trans Narva 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. Kalju Nomme player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.