FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win against Kuressaare, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. FC Levadia Tallinn currently sits at the top of the Meistriliiga standings, having played 23 matches with an impressive record of 17 wins, 5 draws, and only 1 loss. They have scored 61 goals while conceding just 18, resulting in a remarkable goal difference of +43. Their recent form reflects their dominance, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. On the other hand, Kuressaare is positioned ninth in the league and has struggled throughout the season. With 24 matches played, they have managed only 7 wins, alongside 3 draws and 14 losses. Their goal tally of 25 scored against 39 conceded gives them a goal difference of -14. Despite showing some signs of life with three wins in their last five matches, they remain inconsistent and face a tough challenge against the league leaders. The model assigns a high win probability to FC Levadia Tallinn, reflecting their strong season performance. However, one caveat is that if Kuressaare can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Levadia, they might be able to secure a surprise result. For more details on how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.11 | 8.00 | 13.00 | 1.22 | 3.85 | 1.77 | 1.87 | |
| 1.08 | 8.40 | 14.75 | 1.21 | 3.58 | 1.81 | 1.85 | |
| 1.08 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 1.20 | 4.00 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.15 | 6.39 | 20.84 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 6.76 | 9.64 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.14 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.14 | 8.50 | 13.00 | 1.22 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.08 | 8.40 | 14.70 | 1.21 | 3.58 | 1.81 | 1.88 | |
| 1.10 | 8.00 | 16.00 | 1.23 | 3.50 | 1.88 | 1.76 | |
| 1.14 | 7.00 | 15.00 | 1.22 | 3.80 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 1.14 | 6.40 | 13.00 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.12 | 7.80 | 14.00 | 1.21 | 3.50 | 1.83 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 1.07 | 5.75 | 10.50 | 1.17 | 2.90 | 1.65 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 9-0)FC Levadia Tallinn hold the edge in this fixture, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings with 1 draws and 0 Kuressaare wins. The record points to a tie FC Levadia Tallinn have controlled for years, though the draws show Kuressaare have at times kept it tight.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Levadia Tallinn have won 10 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Levadia Tallinn 4-1 and beat FC Levadia Tallinn 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 26W 7D 5L from the last 38 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kuressaare have won 5 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tammeka 1-0 and beat Flora Tallinn 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 18L from the last 35 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Kuressaare
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
E. Reinumagi has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by E. Reinumagi to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
FC Levadia Tallinn average 2.5 goals per match at home; Kuressaare 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 68% of their matches and averaging 2.5 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.