Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Nõmme United, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Flora Tallinn currently sits in third place in the league, having accumulated 42 points from 23 matches. Their season has been marked by a strong offensive record, scoring 45 goals while conceding only 28, resulting in a positive goal difference of 17. Despite a recent dip in form, with only one win in their last five matches, they remain a formidable opponent. Nõmme United, on the other hand, occupies the eighth position with 25 points from 25 matches. Their season has been challenging, reflected in a record of 8 wins and 16 losses. With a goal difference of -18, having scored 42 and conceded 60, they struggle defensively. Their recent form is concerning, as they have managed just one win in their last five outings, which highlights their difficulties as the season progresses. The model output suggests a win probability of around 65% for Flora Tallinn. While they are expected to secure the victory, one caveat is their recent inconsistency, which could allow Nõmme United to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Flora Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.62 | 1.29 | 3.04 | 1.35 | 2.84 | |
| 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.65 | 1.29 | 3.30 | — | — | |
| 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.65 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 4.14 | 4.10 | 1.64 | 1.29 | 3.04 | 1.35 | 2.90 | |
| 3.80 | 4.10 | 1.68 | 1.27 | 3.20 | 1.32 | 2.90 | |
Betano | 3.85 | 4.05 | 1.65 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 6-0)Flora Tallinn hold the edge in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 meetings with 1 draws and 0 Nõmme United wins. The record points to a tie Flora Tallinn have controlled for years, though the draws show Nõmme United have at times kept it tight.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNõmme United have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 11. Their recent home fixtures include beat Nõmme United 3-2 and lost to Nõmme United 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 2D 19L from the last 37 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Flora Tallinn have won 11 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tammeka 3-1 and beat Vaprus 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 2D 16L from the last 43 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNõmme United
No reported absences
Flora Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Nõmme United average 2.3 goals per match at home; Flora Tallinn 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 58% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.