Vaprus vs Laagri Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vaprus vs Laagri
Match Preview
The model favours Vaprus to win against Laagri, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Vaprus currently sits in 7th place in the Meistriliiga, having accumulated 27 points from 23 matches. Their season has been marked by a mixed form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Key to their performance has been their ability to score, netting 31 goals this season, although they have struggled defensively, conceding 44. Laagri, positioned just above Vaprus in 6th place with 28 points from 24 matches, has had a tougher run recently, registering two wins against three losses in their last five games. Their goal difference of -6 reflects a slightly better defensive record than Vaprus but still indicates room for improvement. With 34 goals scored, their offensive output has been marginally better, but their inconsistent form suggests vulnerabilities that Vaprus may exploit. The model gives Vaprus a win probability of approximately 45%, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their slight edge. One caveat to consider is Vaprus's defensive frailties, which could allow Laagri to capitalize if they find their stride. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines our in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Vaprus have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Vaprus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vaprus vs Laagri| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.30 | 3.65 | 2.55 | 1.48 | 2.50 | 1.42 | 2.55 | |
| 2.27 | 3.62 | 2.54 | 1.45 | 2.41 | 1.42 | 2.57 | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 2.29 | 3.72 | 2.68 | 1.52 | 2.42 | — | — | |
| 2.26 | 3.32 | 2.46 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.27 | 3.62 | 2.54 | 1.45 | 2.41 | 1.42 | 2.62 | |
| 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.55 | 1.42 | 2.55 | 1.38 | 2.65 | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.63 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.27 | 3.45 | 2.62 | 1.52 | 2.22 | — | — |
Superbet | 2.32 | 3.55 | 2.65 | 1.50 | 2.35 | 1.46 | 2.52 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.20 | 2.38 | 1.41 | 2.04 | 1.33 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Vaprus leads 4-3)Vaprus hold the edge in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 meetings with 3 draws and 3 Laagri wins. The record points to a tie Vaprus have controlled for years, though the draws show Laagri have at times kept it tight.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 | Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 7 | Vaprus | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 31 | WDLLD |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVaprus have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Nõmme United 1-0 and lost to Flora Tallinn 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 19L from the last 38 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Laagri have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Nõmme United 1-2 and lost to Kuressaare 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 4D 16L from the last 37 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVaprus
No reported absences
Laagri
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Lorenz has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Lorenz to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vaprus average 1.7 goals per match at home; Laagri 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Vaprus have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 37% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. Vaprus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.