Tammeka vs Paide Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tammeka vs Paide
Match Preview
The model favours Tammeka to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 5th place, Tammeka has shown a strong resurgence in form, winning four of their last five matches. This impressive streak has helped them accumulate 35 points from 22 games, with a goal difference of -5. Their ability to score 27 goals while conceding 32 reflects a team that has been more effective in recent weeks, suggesting they are finding their rhythm at a crucial point in the season. On the other hand, Paide, positioned 4th with 39 points from 23 matches, has struggled lately, managing only one win in their last five outings. Their performance has dipped, as evidenced by three losses in that span, which has affected their goal tally—38 goals scored but only 30 conceded. This recent downturn could hinder their chances against a resurgent Tammeka side. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Tammeka, with the projected score being 2-1. However, a potential caveat for Tammeka could be the pressure of maintaining their recent form against a team that has historically performed well. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the analysis by The Daily Punt Analysis Team is based on an in-house model evaluating expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Tammeka have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Tammeka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tammeka vs Paide| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.10 | 3.65 | 2.00 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.48 | 2.38 | |
| 3.04 | 3.58 | 1.99 | 1.54 | 2.19 | 1.50 | 2.34 | |
| 3.10 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 3.03 | 4.01 | 2.00 | 1.58 | 2.29 | — | — | |
| 2.87 | 3.33 | 2.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.10 | 3.58 | 2.01 | 1.54 | 2.19 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 3.40 | 3.55 | 1.90 | 1.54 | 2.23 | 1.47 | 2.38 | |
| 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 1.53 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.02 | 1.52 | 2.20 | — | — |
Superbet | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.53 | 2.30 | 1.49 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.25 | 1.83 | 1.46 | 1.94 | 1.40 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paide leads 8-1)Paide hold the edge in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings with 0 draws and 1 Tammeka win. The record points to a tie Paide have controlled for years, though the draws show Tammeka have at times kept it tight.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 | Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 | Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTammeka have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tammeka 3-1 and beat Tammeka 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 3D 14L from the last 36 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Paide have won 5 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Flora Tallinn 1-2 and lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 10D 13L from the last 43 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTammeka
No reported absences
Paide
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Pukk has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Pukk to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Tammeka average 1.9 goals per match at home; Paide 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tammeka have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 53% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Tammeka player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
