AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction, Tips & Odds
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II
Match Preview
The model favours AZ Alkmaar to win against Willem II, projecting a scoreline of 3-0. AZ Alkmaar currently sits at the top of the Eredivisie table with a perfect record of three wins from three matches, having scored eight goals and conceded just one. Their strong goal difference of plus seven highlights their dominant form, which has seen them win all five of their last matches in various competitions. In contrast, Willem II finds itself in a precarious position at 16th place, having lost both of their opening games of the season and struggling to find the back of the net with only two goals scored while conceding eight. Their recent form shows a mixed bag of results, including two wins but also two losses and a draw in their last five matches, which suggests inconsistency and vulnerability as they face the league leaders. The model indicates a high win probability for AZ Alkmaar, reflecting their strong start to the season and overall performance. However, one caveat to consider is that if Willem II can tighten their defense and capitalize on any potential lapses from AZ Alkmaar, they could challenge the expected outcome. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
AZ Alkmaar have been the stronger side, winning 54% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 AZ Alkmaar win as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature AZ Alkmaar clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. AZ Alkmaar are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.16 | 7.30 | 14.50 | 1.25 | 3.70 | 1.77 | 1.95 | |
| 1.11 | 9.10 | 15.75 | 1.21 | 3.62 | 1.81 | 1.87 | |
| 1.12 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 1.25 | 3.80 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.14 | 9.77 | 17.76 | 1.28 | 3.81 | — | — | |
| 1.15 | 7.05 | 11.08 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 8.50 | 15.00 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.14 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 1.28 | 3.60 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.12 | 10.40 | 18.00 | 1.22 | 3.54 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
| 1.13 | 8.50 | 16.00 | 1.24 | 3.90 | 1.81 | 1.89 | |
| 1.14 | 8.00 | 13.00 | 1.25 | 3.60 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 1.18 | 8.25 | 18.00 | 1.29 | 3.65 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
Superbet | 1.15 | 8.50 | 14.00 | 1.29 | 3.60 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 1.12 | 8.50 | 17.00 | 1.22 | 3.90 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AZ Alkmaar leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II stands at 4 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Willem II over the last 10 matches. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with a balanced distribution of wins and draws. Notably, matches have often been closely contested, as evidenced by the three draws and several narrow scorelines, such as the 2-2 encounters. However, AZ Alkmaar has secured some heavier victories, including a 5-3 win, which highlights their ability to dominate in certain fixtures. The last win for Willem II was in 2024, suggesting a recent struggle against AZ Alkmaar.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 17 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 14 | DWWLW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 | WLWWL |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 | LLDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAZ Alkmaar have won 15 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Telstar 1-0 and drew with Willem II 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 9D 8L from the last 37 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Willem II have won 8 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Ajax 5-1 and drew with AZ Alkmaar 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 7L from the last 26 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAZ Alkmaar4-2-3-1Confirmed
Willem II4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersAZ Alkmaar4
Willem II7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. van den Kerkhof has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. van den Kerkhof to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
AZ Alkmaar have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Willem II 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AZ Alkmaar have generated 2.38 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 54% of them. They put 6.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AZ Alkmaar player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
