Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen
Match Preview
The model favours NEC Nijmegen to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Currently sitting in 6th place, NEC Nijmegen has made a solid start to the season, winning two of their first three matches. They have scored a total of eight goals while conceding four, resulting in a positive goal difference of four. This attacking form, combined with their ability to maintain a decent defensive record, highlights their potential to secure three points against a struggling opponent. In contrast, Cambuur finds themselves at the bottom of the league in 18th position, having lost all three of their opening matches. Their goal-scoring woes are evident, with only three goals scored and a concerning twelve conceded, leading to a goal difference of minus nine. This poor form has translated into five consecutive losses, indicating significant challenges both in attack and defense as they seek to turn their season around. The model gives NEC Nijmegen a strong win probability in this matchup. While the projected score is 2-0 in favour of NEC, one caveat could be Cambuur's potential for an unexpected turnaround, especially if they can leverage home advantage. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.4% probability.
NEC Nijmegen have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 NEC Nijmegen win as the most likely scoreline at 12.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. NEC Nijmegen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.50 | 4.65 | 1.49 | 1.35 | 3.10 | 1.42 | 2.62 | |
| 4.95 | 4.70 | 1.52 | 1.30 | 2.99 | 1.41 | 2.64 | |
| 4.60 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 1.30 | 3.20 | — | — | |
| 5.01 | 4.72 | 1.55 | 1.36 | 3.10 | — | — | |
| 4.80 | 4.50 | 1.53 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 4.50 | 4.75 | 1.53 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 5.09 | 4.84 | 1.56 | 1.30 | 2.99 | 1.41 | 2.69 | |
| 5.75 | 4.75 | 1.46 | 1.37 | 3.00 | 1.48 | 2.48 | |
| 4.80 | 4.50 | 1.53 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
Betano | 4.90 | 4.90 | 1.55 | 1.37 | 3.10 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.53 | 1.33 | 3.13 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (NEC Nijmegen leads 4-3)NEC Nijmegen hold the edge in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 meetings with 3 draws and 3 Cambuur wins. The record points to a tie NEC Nijmegen have controlled for years, though the draws show Cambuur have at times kept it tight.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 5 |  Excelsior | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 9 | WWLW |
| 6 |  Ajax | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 7 | LWDW |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 6 | LWWL |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCambuur have won 3 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Twente 1-4 and lost to Feyenoord 2-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 2D 9L from the last 15 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
NEC Nijmegen have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat PEC Zwolle 1-3 and lost to Bodo/Glimt 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 11L from the last 33 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCambuur
No reported absences
NEC Nijmegen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Cambuur have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; NEC Nijmegen 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
NEC Nijmegen have generated 2.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 6.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. NEC Nijmegen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
