Ajax vs Willem II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Ajax vs Willem II
Match Preview
The model favours Ajax to win against Willem II, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Ajax currently sits in sixth place in the Eredivisie, having accumulated seven points from their first four matches. Their season has been characterised by a strong goal-scoring ability, with nine goals scored, although they have also conceded five. Ajax's recent form shows three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating a solid performance as they look to climb the standings. Conversely, Willem II finds themselves in a challenging position, sitting at sixteenth in the league with just one point from their first four games. They have yet to secure a win, managing only a draw and suffering three losses. Their defensive struggles are evident, having conceded thirteen goals, which highlights their difficulties in both attack and defense this season. The team's recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses suggests some improvement, but they remain vulnerable. The model gives Ajax a high win probability, reflecting their stronger position in the league, recent form, and overall performance metrics. However, a potential caveat is that Ajax's defensive lapses could allow Willem II to exploit any weaknesses, especially if the match becomes competitive. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team is committed to providing data-driven insights for this matchup.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Ajax have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Ajax win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Ajax clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Ajax are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Ajax vs Willem II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.08 | 10.75 | 18.75 | 1.15 | 4.30 | 1.80 | 1.88 | |
| 1.08 | 10.50 | 20.00 | 1.17 | 4.50 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.12 | 11.19 | 17.70 | 1.19 | 4.70 | — | — | |
| 1.10 | 8.49 | 13.48 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.11 | 10.00 | 17.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.10 | 9.00 | 21.00 | 1.22 | 4.20 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.08 | 12.70 | 24.00 | 1.15 | 4.20 | 1.81 | 1.90 | |
Betano | 1.13 | 10.50 | 22.00 | 1.23 | 4.25 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 1.08 | 12.00 | 23.00 | 1.17 | 4.50 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Ajax leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Ajax and Willem II, Ajax has won 7 times, drawn once, and Willem II has won once. This record highlights a dominant performance from Ajax, with several convincing victories, including a 5-0 win and a 4-0 win. The lone victory for Willem II came in December 2019, indicating a long stretch of struggle against Ajax. Additionally, the matches have often leaned towards Ajax, as evidenced by their ability to secure narrow wins alongside heavy margins. The draw in 2020 suggests that while Willem II can occasionally hold Ajax, their overall record is heavily skewed in favor of Ajax.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 17 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 14 | DWWLW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 | WLWWL |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 | LLDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAjax have won 11 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Excelsior 2-2 and beat Willem II 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 14D 6L from the last 40 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Willem II have won 8 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Ajax 5-1 and drew with AZ Alkmaar 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 7L from the last 26 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAjax4-3-3Confirmed
Willem II4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersAjax3
Willem II5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Ajax have averaged 8.4 corners per match at home; Willem II 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Ajax have generated 1.79 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 8.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Ajax player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
