Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Tips & Odds
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
Match Preview
The model favours Groningen to win against PEC Zwolle, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Groningen currently sits in 9th place in the Eredivisie, having secured 7 points from their first five matches. Their goal-scoring has been relatively productive with 11 goals, although they have also conceded 12, indicating a slight defensive vulnerability. The team has shown resilience recently, managing to bounce back with two wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, PEC Zwolle is struggling in 14th place, with just 4 points from their opening five games. Their form has been concerning, with only one victory and three losses in their last five matches. They have managed to score 6 goals but have also conceded 10, which highlights their difficulties in both attack and defense. The pressure is mounting for Zwolle to improve their performances to climb out of the relegation zone. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Groningen, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that if Groningen's defense continues to falter, PEC Zwolle could capitalise on any mistakes. The full methodology behind this prediction, which uses expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.4% probability.
Groningen have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Groningen win as the most likely scoreline at 12.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Groningen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.63 | 4.20 | 4.55 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.40 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.60 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.68 | 4.32 | 4.68 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.48 | 2.47 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 4.30 | 4.65 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.47 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.60 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.45 | 2.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (PEC Zwolle leads 3-1)PEC Zwolle hold the edge in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 10 meetings with 6 draws and 1 Groningen win. The record points to a tie PEC Zwolle have controlled for years, though the draws show Groningen have at times kept it tight.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Groningen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 | DLLWW |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | DLWLL |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGroningen have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Fortuna Sittard 2-3 and beat Valladolid 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 14L from the last 27 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
PEC Zwolle have won 1 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with PEC Zwolle 2-2 and beat Heerenveen 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 7D 13L from the last 26 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGroningen
No reported absences
PEC Zwolle
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Groningen have averaged 5.6 corners per match at home; PEC Zwolle 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Groningen have generated 1.65 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Groningen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
