Excelsior vs Utrecht Prediction, Tips & Odds
Excelsior vs Utrecht
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The model favours Excelsior with a projected scoreline of 3-1 against Utrecht. Excelsior currently sits in 9th place in the Eredivisie, having secured 6 points from their first three matches. Their scoring ability has been notable, with 7 goals scored and only 3 conceded, resulting in a goal difference of +4. The team has shown strong recent form, winning four of their last five matches, a testament to their attacking prowess and solid defensive play. In contrast, Utrecht finds themselves in a challenging position at 17th place, with only 1 point from four matches. They are yet to secure a victory this season, managing just one draw and suffering three defeats. Their goal difference of -9 reflects significant defensive struggles, having conceded 15 goals while scoring only 6. The recent form has been particularly concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, highlighting a lack of momentum and confidence. The model suggests a win probability of 70% for Excelsior, with a projected score of 3-1. One key market percentage to note is that Excelsior is likely to be favoured in the odds for the match. However, a potential caveat lies in Utrecht's ability to turn their fortunes around, which could lead to an unexpected performance. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Excelsior have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Excelsior are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Excelsior vs Utrecht| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.28 | 3.70 | 2.78 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.17 | 3.65 | 2.96 | 1.59 | 2.31 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 2.24 | 3.84 | 3.06 | 1.60 | 2.42 | — | — | |
| 2.08 | 3.37 | 2.83 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 2.20 | 3.75 | 3.00 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.23 | 3.76 | 3.04 | 1.62 | 2.36 | 1.49 | 2.44 | |
| 2.23 | 3.70 | 2.80 | 1.63 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
| 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.90 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
Superbet | 2.22 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 1.61 | 2.32 | 1.51 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 1.56 | 2.23 | 1.47 | 2.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Utrecht leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Excelsior and Utrecht, Excelsior has won 1 time, drawn 5 times, and Utrecht has won 4 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow and heavy victories. Notably, Excelsior's only win was a decisive 5-0 result, while Utrecht's victories have generally been closer, with their largest margin being 4-1. The frequency of draws suggests that matches tend to be tightly contested, and it has been a while since Excelsior last secured a win against Utrecht, highlighting their recent struggles in this matchup.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 | Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 15 | Utrecht | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonExcelsior have won 3 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Excelsior 2-1 and lost to Excelsior 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 8L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Utrecht have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Sparta Rotterdam 3-3 and lost to Cambuur 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 12L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersExcelsior1
Utrecht7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. van der Eijk has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Excelsior have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Utrecht 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Excelsior have generated 1.20 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Excelsior player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
