Ried vs Grazer AK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Ried vs Grazer AK
Match Preview
The model favours Ried to win against Grazer AK, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Ried currently sits in 6th place in the Bundesliga standings after one match, having secured one point with a draw. Their season form reflects a solid performance with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Notably, they have managed to score in their opening match while maintaining a balanced goal difference. On the other hand, Grazer AK finds themselves in 11th place, having lost their opening fixture and failing to score any goals, while conceding three. Their recent form has been troubling, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. This suggests that they may struggle to find their footing early in the season, which could impact their confidence and performance against a side like Ried. The model output indicates a win probability of 65% for Ried, with a key market expectation of Ried winning by a margin. However, one caveat to consider is that early-season matches can be unpredictable, and Grazer AK may improve as they settle into the season. The full methodology behind this prediction is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Ried have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Ried clean sheets, in line with their 15% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Ried are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Ried vs Grazer AK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.35 | 3.70 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 1.95 | |
| 1.92 | 3.52 | 3.74 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 1.96 | 3.72 | 3.89 | 1.94 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 1.93 | 3.16 | 3.40 | 1.96 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.70 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.91 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.94 | 3.52 | 3.73 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 1.98 | 1.71 | 1.77 | 1.87 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 1.92 | 3.40 | 3.85 | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Grazer AK leads 5-1)In the last eight matches between Ried and Grazer AK, Grazer AK has won five times, Ried has won once, and there have been two draws. This record indicates a strong advantage for Grazer AK, particularly highlighted by their ability to secure narrow victories, with four of their wins coming by just a single goal. The matches have generally been competitive, as evidenced by the two draws and Ried's recent win. However, Ried's last victory against Grazer AK was in April 2026, suggesting they have struggled to find consistent success against this opponent.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | WWD |
| 5 |  Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | LDW |
| 6 |  Austria Lustenau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 | LWL |
| 10 | Ried | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | LLD |
| 11 |  WSG Wattens | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 12 |  TSV Hartberg | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRied have won 11 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Ried 1-2 and beat Ried 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 14L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Grazer AK have won 3 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Lask Linz 3-0 and beat Fach-Donaufeld 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 10L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedRied3-4-2-1Confirmed
Grazer AK3-1-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersRied
No reported absences
Grazer AK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Pfister has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. Pfister to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Ried have averaged 2.7 corners per match at home; Grazer AK 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Ried have generated 0.88 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Ried player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
