Riga FC II vs Leevon / PPK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Riga FC II vs Leevon / PPK
Match Preview
The model favours Leevon / PPK to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently positioned third in the league, Leevon / PPK has had an impressive season with 13 wins from 18 matches, accumulating 42 points. Their strong goal difference of +12 reflects their solid performance, having scored 33 goals while conceding only 21. Winning their last five matches demonstrates their current form and consistency, making them a formidable opponent. In contrast, Riga FC II is struggling this season, sitting ninth in the standings with only 21 points from 18 games. Their record of six wins, three draws, and nine losses, coupled with a goal difference of -9, highlights their defensive vulnerabilities. Recent form shows that they have not won in their last five matches, with two draws and three losses, indicating a lack of momentum heading into this fixture. The model indicates a strong win probability for Leevon / PPK, although there is always the possibility of an upset, particularly if Riga FC II can find a way to exploit any defensive lapses. The full prediction methodology, which includes an analysis of expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs this in-house model to provide insights into match outcomes.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Leevon / PPK have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Leevon / PPK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Riga FC II vs Leevon / PPK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.14 | 3.65 | 1.92 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 1.39 | 2.63 | |
| 3.10 | 3.80 | 1.91 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.07 | 3.56 | 1.93 | 1.41 | 2.59 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 3.30 | 1.95 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 3.25 | 3.90 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 3.20 | 3.65 | 1.94 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 1.39 | 2.69 | |
Betano | 3.15 | 3.70 | 1.91 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Riga FC II leads 3-1)In the last four matches between Riga FC II and Leevon / PPK, Riga FC II has won three times, while Leevon / PPK has secured one victory. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable trend for Riga FC II, with two of their wins being by a margin of three goals or more (3-0 and 4-1). Leevon / PPK's sole win came in a tighter 2-1 match, suggesting that while they can compete, they have struggled to dominate. Overall, Riga FC II appears to have the upper hand in this rivalry, with Leevon / PPK last winning over a year ago.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 86 | 16 | 70 | 51 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 58 | 19 | 39 | 51 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 46 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 46 | 21 | 25 | 44 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 37 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 28 | WLLWL |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 25 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 40 | -20 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 13 |  Tukums II | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 59 | -36 | 12 | LLLLD |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 61 | -45 | 6 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRiga FC II have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Leevon / PPK 1-1 and beat Skanste 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 13L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Leevon / PPK have won 9 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Leevon / PPK 1-1 and beat Tukums II 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 7D 6L from the last 33 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRiga FC II
No reported absences
Leevon / PPK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Riga FC II average 1.7 goals per match at home; Leevon / PPK 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Leevon / PPK have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 61% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Leevon / PPK player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.