Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys Prediction, Tips & Odds
Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys
Match Preview
The model favours Rosario Central to win against Newells Old Boys, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Rosario Central currently sits in fourth place in the Liga Profesional, boasting a solid record of eight wins, four draws, and four losses from 16 matches. Their goal difference of +4 highlights a more balanced performance, with 20 goals scored and only 16 conceded. Over their last five matches, they have secured three victories, indicating a strong form as they push for a higher league finish. In contrast, Newells Old Boys find themselves in 14th position, struggling with three wins, six draws, and seven losses. With just 15 points, their season has been challenging, particularly in defence, where they have conceded 27 goals, resulting in a goal difference of -12. Their recent form shows some inconsistency, with two wins but also two losses in their last five matches. This ongoing struggle may hinder their ability to compete effectively against a higher-ranked opponent. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Rosario Central, reflecting their superior form and standings. However, one caveat to consider is if Newells Old Boys can manage to disrupt Rosario Central's rhythm, which has been a challenge for stronger teams in the league. The full method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Rosario Central have kept a clean sheet in 36% of matches. Newells Old Boys average 0.9 goals per game.
Rosario Central manage games at home, conceding just 0.89 goals per match. Newells Old Boys score 0.93 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 22.1% probability.
Rosario Central have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Rosario Central win as the most likely scoreline at 22.1% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Rosario Central clean sheets, in line with their 36% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Rosario Central are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.67 | 3.35 | 5.75 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| 1.53 | 3.62 | 7.00 | 2.29 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.49 | |
| 1.65 | 3.40 | 6.00 | 2.63 | 1.47 | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 3.83 | 8.16 | 2.52 | 1.56 | — | — | |
| 1.58 | 3.20 | 4.84 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 3.40 | 6.50 | — | — | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 1.53 | 3.50 | 8.50 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| 1.53 | 3.74 | 7.60 | 2.38 | 1.58 | 2.46 | 1.48 | |
| 1.64 | 3.40 | 6.10 | 2.65 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.45 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 3.40 | 6.30 | 2.65 | 1.52 | 2.42 | 1.52 |
Superbet | 1.67 | 3.40 | 6.30 | 2.62 | 1.50 | 2.45 | 1.51 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.80 | 7.50 | 2.27 | 1.54 | 2.45 | 1.47 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Rosario Central leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Rosario Central and Newells Old Boys, Rosario Central has won 7 times, with 2 draws and Newells Old Boys securing just 1 victory. The scorelines indicate a strong advantage for Rosario Central, as they have consistently edged out their rivals, with several narrow victories, such as 1-0 on multiple occasions. Newells Old Boys' lone win came in 2022, and since then, they have struggled to find success against Rosario Central, highlighting a notable one-sidedness in this fixture.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | WLWDL |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | WLDLW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | WDWDD |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | DWDDD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | DDWDL |
| 4 | Rosario Central | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 28 | WDLDW |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DDDWW |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DLDDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRosario Central have won 10 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Newells Old Boys 1-1 and lost to Gimnasia L.P. 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 10L from the last 36 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Newells Old Boys have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Rosario Central 1-1 and drew with Estudiantes L.P. 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 10D 11L from the last 27 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedRosario Central4-2-3-1Confirmed
Newells Old Boys4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersRosario Central
No reported absences
Newells Old Boys
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Rosario Central have averaged 7.3 corners per match at home; Newells Old Boys 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Rosario Central have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Rosario Central player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
