San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC
Match Preview
The model favours San Jose Earthquakes to win against Minnesota United FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. San Jose currently sits in third place in the league standings, having accumulated 33 points from 18 matches played. Their season has been relatively strong, with 10 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses. They have scored 37 goals while conceding 24, resulting in a positive goal difference of 13. Despite a recent dip in form with only one win in their last five matches, their overall performance this season positions them as clear favourites. Minnesota United FC finds themselves in 10th place, with a total of 24 points from 18 games. Their record shows 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded, leading to a negative goal difference of -5. The team has struggled recently, failing to secure a win in their last five matches, managing just three draws and two losses. This inconsistency has hindered their ability to climb the standings, making it challenging for them as they face a higher-ranked opponent. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 58% for San Jose, suggesting they have a strong chance to secure the three points. However, a notable caveat is the recent dip in form, which could impact their performance. For more details on how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
San Jose Earthquakes have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. San Jose Earthquakes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.12 | 3.90 | 2.92 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 2.25 | 3.74 | 2.78 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.39 | 2.72 | |
| 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.34 | 3.88 | 2.87 | 1.49 | 2.72 | — | — | |
| 2.23 | 3.53 | 2.65 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.88 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.17 | 3.75 | 2.90 | 1.46 | 2.60 | 1.42 | 2.65 | |
| 2.10 | 3.80 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.87 | 1.50 | 2.67 | 1.42 | 2.72 |
Superbet | 2.27 | 3.75 | 2.90 | 1.51 | 2.57 | 1.44 | 2.65 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.36 | 2.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Minnesota United FC leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC, the record shows 3 wins for San Jose, 2 draws, and 5 wins for Minnesota. This indicates a slight advantage for Minnesota in their encounters. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests and more decisive victories, with Minnesota achieving two wins by a margin of two goals or more. Additionally, there have been three matches that ended in a draw, suggesting that while matches can be competitive, Minnesota has often found a way to secure a win, with San Jose's last victory over them occurring in February 2026.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 46 | WWDLW |
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 39 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 37 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 35 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 34 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 33 | LLLDL |
| 11 | Minnesota United FC | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 25 | LDDDL |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 20 | WDDLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 18 | WWLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 15 | DLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Jose Earthquakes have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to St. Louis City 1-3 and drew with Los Angeles Galaxy 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 4D 7L from the last 27 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Minnesota United FC have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Minnesota United FC 1-1 and drew with Tigres UANL 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 12D 10L from the last 30 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersSan Jose Earthquakes3
Minnesota United FC3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 6.4 corners per match at home; Minnesota United FC 6.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Jose Earthquakes have generated 1.83 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Jose Earthquakes player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
