St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction, Tips & Odds
St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo
Match Preview
The model favours Houston Dynamo to win this match against St. Louis City, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Houston currently sits in 4th place in the standings, having earned 32 points from 18 matches. With a season record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, they have shown a solid ability to score, netting 27 goals while conceding 24, resulting in a goal difference of +3. St. Louis City, on the other hand, occupies the 7th position with 26 points. Their record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses reflects a balanced but inconsistent season. They have managed to score 24 goals and conceded the same number, leading to a goal difference of 0. However, their recent form is impressive, boasting four wins and one draw in their last five matches, suggesting they are capable of competing strongly. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Houston Dynamo, giving them a solid edge heading into this match. While St. Louis City's recent form could pose a challenge, Houston's overall stronger season performance and higher league position make them the likely victors. One caveat is that St. Louis could exploit any defensive lapses from Houston. For a more detailed explanation of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
St. Louis City have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. St. Louis City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.02 | 3.65 | 3.35 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.10 | 3.38 | 3.34 | 1.83 | 1.94 | 1.66 | 2.06 | |
| 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 2.19 | 3.53 | 3.40 | 1.89 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 2.08 | 3.26 | 3.11 | 1.83 | 2.01 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.08 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 1.75 | 2.02 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.87 | 1.98 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
Superbet | 2.17 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.82 | 2.00 | 1.66 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.78 | 1.89 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between St. Louis City and Houston Dynamo stands at 3 wins for each team and 3 draws across their last 9 encounters. This indicates a competitive rivalry, with no side showing a clear dominance. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight matches, such as the 2-2 and 1-1 draws, alongside some heavier wins, like St. Louis City's 3-0 victories. Both teams have also experienced narrow wins, highlighting the potential for closely contested games. The last time Houston Dynamo won against St. Louis City was in 2025, suggesting a recent advantage for St. Louis City in their matchups.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 46 | WWDLW |
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 39 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 37 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 35 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 34 | LLDWW |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 30 | DWDWW |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 20 | WDDLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 18 | WWLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 15 | DLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSt. Louis City have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with St. Louis City 1-1 and beat St. Louis City 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 8L from the last 26 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Houston Dynamo have won 7 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Houston Dynamo 0-1 and beat New England Revolution 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 6D 6L from the last 33 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersSt. Louis City4
Houston Dynamo4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
St. Louis City have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Houston Dynamo 3.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
St. Louis City have generated 1.90 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. St. Louis City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
