Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord
Match Preview
The model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF to win against Sandefjord, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sarpsborg currently sits in 7th place in the Eliteserien, having accumulated 22 points from 15 matches. Their form shows some resilience, with two wins, two draws, and just one loss in their last five matches. Notably, they have scored 18 goals while conceding 19, indicating a competitive but slightly leaky defence. In contrast, Sandefjord finds themselves in 12th position with only 15 points from the same number of matches. Their recent form has been troubling, with no wins in their last five matches, resulting in four losses and one draw. They have struggled offensively, scoring just 13 goals while allowing 21, which highlights a significant gap in both attacking and defensive capabilities compared to Sarpsborg. The model suggests a win probability of around 60% for Sarpsborg, with a projected score of 2-1. The key market percentage indicates a strong likelihood of Sarpsborg taking all three points. However, a caveat exists; if Sandefjord can find a way to improve their form and capitalise on any defensive mistakes from Sarpsborg, they could pull off an upset. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sarpsborg 08 FF are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.48 | 2.45 | |
| 1.75 | 3.94 | 4.05 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.46 | 2.49 | |
| 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 1.79 | 4.16 | 4.22 | 1.51 | 2.64 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.52 | 3.48 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.79 | 4.03 | 4.14 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.46 | 2.53 | |
| 1.80 | 3.85 | 3.75 | 1.46 | 2.45 | 1.46 | 2.48 | |
| 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 3.90 | 4.05 | 1.52 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sarpsborg 08 FF leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord, Sarpsborg has won 6 times, while Sandefjord has claimed victory 3 times, with 1 match ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests and more one-sided affairs, highlighted by Sarpsborg's 6-1 win and Sandefjord's 5-1 triumph. Notably, the results suggest a tendency for higher-scoring matches, though both teams have also recorded narrow victories. Sandefjord's last win over Sarpsborg came in 2024, indicating a challenging recent history against them.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 | DDLLD |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 20 | DDWLL |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSarpsborg 08 FF have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 and beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 9L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sandefjord have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Eidanger 0-15 and beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 10L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSarpsborg 08 FF4-2-3-1Confirmed
Sandefjord4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersSarpsborg 08 FF4
Sandefjord6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
C. Moen has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Sarpsborg 08 FF have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Sandefjord 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sarpsborg 08 FF have generated 1.53 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sarpsborg 08 FF player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
