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Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction, Tips & Odds

Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

EliteserienRegular Season - 19
Tromso
#3 · Eliteserien
LWWWL
VS
Romssa Arena
Sarpsborg 08 FF
#9 · Eliteserien
LLDWW

Match Preview

The model favours Tromso to win against Sarpsborg 08 FF, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tromso currently sits in 3rd place in the Eliteserien, having accumulated 34 points from 17 matches with a record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses. Their goal difference of +14 reflects a strong attacking and defensive performance, highlighted by scoring 34 goals while conceding 20. Despite a recent dip in form with two losses in their last five matches, their overall season performance positions them as a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Sarpsborg 08 FF is positioned 9th in the standings with 22 points from the same number of matches. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, along with a negative goal difference of -3, indicates struggles both offensively and defensively, having scored 20 goals and conceded 23. Their recent form, featuring only one win in the last five matches, suggests they are struggling to find consistency, which could be a concern going into this match. According to the model, Tromso has a win probability of approximately 60%, while Sarpsborg's chances sit at around 20%. One key market to consider is the expectation for Tromso to score at least two goals. However, a potential caveat for Tromso is their recent inconsistency, which could allow Sarpsborg to capitalize if they find form. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.

Head to Head

Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)
4 Tromso2 Draw4 Sarpsborg 08 FF
19 Apr
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0-1
Tromso
Eliteserien
Nov 25
Tromso
4-0
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien
May 25
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0-1
Tromso
Eliteserien
Feb 25
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3-3
Tromso
Friendlies Clubs
Dec 24
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2-1
Tromso
Eliteserien
Apr 24
Tromso
0-3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien
Aug 23
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4-0
Tromso
Eliteserien
Jun 23
Tromso
2-1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien
Oct 22
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1-1
Tromso
Eliteserien
Apr 22
Tromso
2-5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien

The head-to-head record between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF stands at 4 wins for each team, with 2 draws in their last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with both teams achieving narrow victories as well as some heavy wins, such as Tromso's 4-0 win and Sarpsborg's 5-2 victory. The presence of two draws suggests competitive matchups, while the recurring scorelines, including a 3-3 draw, highlight moments of high scoring. Overall, the record reflects a balanced rivalry, with neither side having an extended period of dominance in recent encounters.

Eliteserien Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Bodo/Glimt
17132243123141
WWWWW
2
Viking
17131340172340
LWWDW
3
Tromso
17104334201434
LWWWD
4
Molde
178363226627
WLDWL
5
Lillestrom
178272321226
DLLLW
6
Brann
178183627925
WWLWW
9
Sarpsborg 08 FF
176472023-322
LLDWD
14
Kristiansund BK
1743101527-1215
LWLLD
15
Aalesund
172962741-1415
DDLDL
16
Start
1724111638-2210
LLWLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
TromsoHome
6W2D1L
9 playedGF 18 · GA 72.22 pts/game
Sarpsborg 08 FFAway
2W2D5L
9 playedGF 11 · GA 160.89 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
TromsoSarpsborg 08 FF
1.72Goals p.g.1.56
1.03Goals conceded p.g.1.37
47%Clean sheets26%
56%Win rate48%
2.75Avg goals in match2.93
1.24xG per game1.48
-0.24xGA per game-0.06
47%Possession %45%
4.9Shots on target / game3.7
4.6Corners per game4.8
Tromso
Recent Form

Tromso have won 12 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tromso 2-1 and lost to Tromso 0-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 8L from the last 32 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: TromsoAll competitions
16 Aug
Molde
3-2
Tromso
Eliteserien
13 Aug
Tromso
2-1
CFR 1907 Cluj
UEFA Europa Conference League
06 Aug
CFR 1907 Cluj
0-5
Tromso
UEFA Europa Conference League
02 Aug
Aalesund
2-6
Tromso
Eliteserien
30 Jul
Hradec Králové
3-1
Tromso
UEFA Europa League
23 Jul
Tromso
0-1
Hradec Králové
UEFA Europa League
18
Win
56%
6
Draw
19%
8
Lost
25%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Form

Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Viking 2-1 and drew with Molde 3-3.

Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 10L from the last 27 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Sarpsborg 08 FFAll competitions
16 Aug
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1-2
Sandefjord
Eliteserien
08 Aug
Viking
2-1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien
02 Aug
Molde
3-3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien
26 Jul
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1-0
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien
12 Jul
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1-0
Viking
Eliteserien
03 Jul
Lillestrom
3-1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Friendlies Clubs
13
Win
48%
4
Draw
15%
10
Lost
37%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Tromso

No reported absences

Sarpsborg 08 FF

No reported absences

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.