Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Match Preview
The model favours Tromso to win against Sarpsborg 08 FF, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tromso currently sits in 3rd place in the Eliteserien, having accumulated 34 points from 17 matches with a record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses. Their goal difference of +14 reflects a strong attacking and defensive performance, highlighted by scoring 34 goals while conceding 20. Despite a recent dip in form with two losses in their last five matches, their overall season performance positions them as a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Sarpsborg 08 FF is positioned 9th in the standings with 22 points from the same number of matches. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, along with a negative goal difference of -3, indicates struggles both offensively and defensively, having scored 20 goals and conceded 23. Their recent form, featuring only one win in the last five matches, suggests they are struggling to find consistency, which could be a concern going into this match. According to the model, Tromso has a win probability of approximately 60%, while Sarpsborg's chances sit at around 20%. One key market to consider is the expectation for Tromso to score at least two goals. However, a potential caveat for Tromso is their recent inconsistency, which could allow Sarpsborg to capitalize if they find form. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
Tromso have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Tromso are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 3.95 | 4.33 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.30 | 1.58 | 2.33 | 1.56 | 2.24 | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 1.77 | 3.91 | 4.66 | 1.61 | 2.39 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.77 | 4.12 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.50 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.72 | 4.20 | 4.40 | 1.60 | 2.36 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
| 1.62 | 4.10 | 4.80 | 1.50 | 2.33 | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.50 | 1.60 | 2.32 | 1.57 | 2.27 |
Superbet | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.40 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.56 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF stands at 4 wins for each team, with 2 draws in their last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with both teams achieving narrow victories as well as some heavy wins, such as Tromso's 4-0 win and Sarpsborg's 5-2 victory. The presence of two draws suggests competitive matchups, while the recurring scorelines, including a 3-3 draw, highlight moments of high scoring. Overall, the record reflects a balanced rivalry, with neither side having an extended period of dominance in recent encounters.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 | Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 | DDLLD |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTromso have won 12 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Tromso 0-0 and drew with Tromso 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 8D 10L from the last 38 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-0 and beat Sparta Sarpsborg 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 9L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedTromso5-3-2Confirmed
Sarpsborg 08 FF4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersTromso3
Sarpsborg 08 FF4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. T. Sinnes has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Tromso have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Tromso have generated 1.34 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Tromso player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
