Valerenga vs Molde Prediction, Tips & Odds
Valerenga vs Molde
Match Preview
The model favours Molde to secure a win against Valerenga, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 5th place, Molde has amassed 24 points from 16 matches, with a record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +5 indicates a more potent attack compared to their defensive record, as they have scored 29 goals while conceding 24. Despite a mixed recent form, Molde's overall season performance suggests they are capable of exploiting Valerenga's vulnerabilities. Valerenga, on the other hand, is positioned 10th in the league with only 20 points from 16 matches, highlighting their struggle this season. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, their goal difference of -6 reflects defensive issues, having conceded 29 goals while scoring 23. Their recent form has also been inconsistent, with just 2 wins in their last 5 matches, which raises concerns about their ability to compete effectively against a stronger opponent like Molde. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Molde, suggesting they are likely to take all three points. However, Valerenga's home advantage and their need to improve could pose challenges for Molde. For a detailed understanding of the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines their in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.8% probability.
Valerenga have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Valerenga are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Valerenga vs Molde| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.38 | 3.85 | 2.55 | 1.38 | 3.00 | 1.30 | 3.10 | |
| 2.59 | 4.00 | 2.29 | 1.30 | 2.99 | 1.31 | 3.08 | |
| 2.55 | 4.00 | 2.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.71 | 3.91 | 2.36 | 1.39 | 3.03 | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
| 2.55 | 3.80 | 2.38 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 2.65 | 4.10 | 2.35 | 1.30 | 2.99 | 1.31 | 3.14 | |
| 2.38 | 3.75 | 2.50 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
Betano | 2.62 | 3.75 | 2.37 | 1.38 | 2.92 | 1.34 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Molde leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Valerenga and Molde, Molde has won 6 times, Valerenga has won once, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for Molde, with several heavy victories, including a 5-1 and a 4-1 win. The matches have often been competitive, but Molde's ability to secure decisive wins suggests a one-sided trend in their favor. Valerenga's last win against Molde came in May 2021, highlighting a prolonged struggle against this opponent. Overall, the historical data underscores Molde's dominance in this rivalry.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 12 | 31 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 40 | LWWDW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 34 | LWWWD |
| 4 | Molde | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 27 | WLDWL |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 26 | DLLLW |
| 6 |  Brann | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 25 | WWLWW |
| 11 | Valerenga | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 21 | DLLWW |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | LWLLD |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 15 | DDLDL |
| 16 |  Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 10 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonValerenga have won 11 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Bodo/Glimt 1-2 and lost to Ham-Kam 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 12L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Molde have won 2 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Molde 2-1 and beat KFUM Oslo 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 10L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersValerenga
No reported absences
Molde
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Valerenga have averaged 6.8 corners per match at home; Molde 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Valerenga have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Valerenga player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
