SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction, Tips & Odds
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
Match Preview
The model favours SC Freiburg to win against FC Schalke 04, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Freiburg currently sits in third place, having enjoyed a strong start to the season with three wins and one draw from their first four matches. They have scored 12 goals while conceding just 3, demonstrating both attacking prowess and defensive solidity. The team's positive goal difference of 9 is indicative of their strong form, with a recent run of four wins and a draw in their last five matches further solidifying their status as early contenders. On the other hand, FC Schalke 04 occupies the 11th position in the league, with a record of one win, two draws, and one loss from their four fixtures. They have struggled to find their rhythm, scoring only 3 goals while conceding 4. Although they managed to secure two wins in their last five matches, their overall goal difference of -1 reflects ongoing challenges in both attack and defence. Schalke will need a significant improvement to compete with a team like Freiburg. According to the model, SC Freiburg has a 57.3% chance of winning, while the probability of a draw stands at 24.0%, and Schalke's chances are at 18.8%. One potential caveat is that if Freiburg's defence falters, Schalke could capitalize on any mistakes, leading to a more competitive match than anticipated. For a comprehensive overview of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
SC Freiburg have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature SC Freiburg clean sheets, in line with their 22% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. SC Freiburg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.68 | 3.94 | 5.15 | 1.57 | 2.22 | 1.61 | 2.17 | |
| 1.66 | 3.84 | 5.20 | 1.62 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 1.52 | 3.95 | 4.63 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.29 | 1.68 | 2.38 | 1.61 | 2.20 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (SC Freiburg leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between SC Freiburg and FC Schalke 04, SC Freiburg has won 6 times, with 2 draws and 2 victories for FC Schalke 04. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for Freiburg, highlighted by three 4-0 wins in this period, suggesting that their victories have often been quite convincing. The matches have featured a mix of scoring patterns, including two draws, but the overall trend leans heavily in favor of Freiburg, especially given that Schalke has not won against Freiburg since March 2018.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 11 | FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 | DWDL |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSC Freiburg have won 16 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Luzern 4-2 and beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 4D 12L from the last 37 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Schalke 04 have won 7 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat FC Schalke 04 0-1 and beat Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 1D 5L from the last 16 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSC Freiburg
No reported absences
FC Schalke 04
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
SC Freiburg have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; FC Schalke 04 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
SC Freiburg have generated 1.83 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. SC Freiburg player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
