Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo
Match Preview
The model favours Shimizu S-pulse to win against FC Tokyo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Shimizu S-pulse currently sits in 11th place in the J1 League after two matches, boasting one win and one loss. Their goal difference stands at zero, having scored one goal and conceded one. The team has shown promising form recently, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they look to build on their early-season performance. In contrast, FC Tokyo finds itself in a challenging position, sitting at 17th in the league standings with no wins from their first two matches. They have managed to score three goals but have also conceded seven, resulting in a significant negative goal difference of -4. Their recent form has been disappointing, with only one win in their last five matches, which may impact their confidence heading into this fixture. The model suggests a win probability of 60% for Shimizu S-pulse, while FC Tokyo has a 20% chance of winning. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Shimizu S-pulse scoring over 1.5 goals, which appears favorable based on their recent attacking displays. However, a potential caveat is Shimizu S-pulse's inconsistency, as they have lost two of their last five matches. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Shimizu S-pulse manage games at home, conceding just 1.13 goals per match. FC Tokyo score 1.68 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
FC Tokyo have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. FC Tokyo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.65 | 3.35 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.77 | 1.91 | |
| 3.60 | 3.36 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 1.78 | 1.79 | 1.89 | |
| 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 3.78 | 3.52 | 2.06 | 2.08 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 3.16 | 3.04 | 2.06 | 2.08 | 1.76 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 3.68 | 3.44 | 2.06 | 2.03 | 1.80 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.04 | 1.94 | 1.74 | 1.73 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 3.70 | 3.25 | 2.02 | 2.02 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Superbet | 3.65 | 3.25 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 1.74 | 1.82 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.40 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.91 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Tokyo leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Shimizu S-pulse and FC Tokyo, FC Tokyo has won 6 times, Shimizu S-pulse has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, but FC Tokyo has often had the upper hand, securing several heavy wins, including a 4-0 victory in 2021. Shimizu S-pulse has managed to achieve back-to-back 2-0 victories in their last two encounters, showcasing their potential to compete effectively. The most recent draw occurred in October 2025, suggesting that both teams have had their moments, but FC Tokyo's edge in wins highlights a more favorable historical position.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Kashima | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 12 | WWWW |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 8 | DDWW |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | WWDL |
| 6 |  Vissel Kobe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | WLDW |
| 16 | Shimizu S-pulse | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 | LLLW |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 | LLLW |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonShimizu S-pulse have won 4 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Kashiwa Reysol 0-1 and beat Osaka 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 9D 12L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Tokyo have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat FC Tokyo 0-3 and drew with Vissel Kobe 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 10D 7L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
FC Tokyo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shimizu S-pulse have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; FC Tokyo 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Tokyo have generated 2.01 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Tokyo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
