Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia
Match Preview
Slovenia and FYR Macedonia face off in a crucial knockout match in the UEFA Nations League, where a win is essential for both teams to progress. With the group stage yet to commence, both sides have everything to play for. Slovenia enters this match with a mixed recent competitive form, having recorded two losses and four draws in their last eight matches, including a narrow defeat to Croatia and a draw against Sweden. FYR Macedonia, meanwhile, has struggled even more, suffering heavy losses and managing only three draws in their last eight outings. Despite the lack of a clear competitive edge, Slovenia may hold a slight advantage due to their more competitive recent fixtures compared to FYR Macedonia, who faced significant defeats, including a 4-0 loss to Türkiye and a staggering 7-1 loss to Wales. Both teams have no reported absentees, which means they can field their strongest available lineups. The neutral venue adds an interesting dynamic, eliminating any home advantage and placing both teams on equal footing. However, the stakes are high, with the pressure of knockout football likely influencing the match's tempo and tactics. Given the unpredictable nature of tournament play and the limited recent competitive data, it’s difficult to forecast an outcome with certainty. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has assessed this matchup through an in-house model that analyzes aggregated bookmaker probabilities alongside the tournament context. As no model probability is available for this fixture, the matchup remains open-ended, with both sides capable of advancing depending on their performance on the day.
About the Teams
Slovenia
Profile data not available yet.
FYR Macedonia
Profile data not available yet.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Slovenia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. FYR Macedonia average 0.6 goals per game.
Slovenia manage games at home, conceding just 1.17 goals per match. FYR Macedonia score 0.62 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 20.6% probability.
Slovenia have been the stronger side, winning 17% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Slovenia win as the most likely scoreline at 20.6% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Slovenia clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Slovenia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.60 | 3.78 | 6.50 | 2.38 | 1.60 | 2.33 | 1.53 | |
| 1.57 | 3.50 | 6.50 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.60 | 3.68 | 7.08 | 2.44 | 1.59 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.26 | 4.84 | 2.29 | 1.61 | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 3.40 | 6.00 | — | — | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.57 | 3.50 | 6.50 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.62 | 3.82 | 6.57 | 2.41 | 1.62 | 2.33 | 1.55 | |
Betano | 1.62 | 3.70 | 7.10 | 2.37 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.57 |
BetVictor | 1.55 | 3.70 | 6.50 | 2.25 | 1.55 | 2.38 | 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (FYR Macedonia leads 1-0)In the last three meetings between Slovenia and FYR Macedonia, Slovenia has recorded 0 wins, with 2 draws and 1 win for FYR Macedonia. The matches include 2 competitive fixtures from the Euro Championship and 1 friendly. The most recent encounter took place in June 2021, which means the data is relatively current, but the overall sample size is too small to draw definitive conclusions. The competitive matches resulted in a draw and a narrow win for FYR Macedonia, while the friendly ended in a stalemate.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSlovenia have won 1 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat FYR Macedonia 2-0 and drew with Scotland 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 6D 4L from the last 12 games (17% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FYR Macedonia have won 0 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Slovenia 2-0 and lost to Türkiye 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 1W 5D 7L from the last 13 games (8% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSlovenia
No reported absences
FYR Macedonia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Andrea Colombo has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Slovenia have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; FYR Macedonia 2.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Slovenia have generated 0.83 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 17% of them. They put 2.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Slovenia player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.