Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz to win against Austria Lustenau, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently sitting at the top of the Bundesliga table, Sturm Graz has started the season strongly with one win and one draw from their first two matches, scoring three goals while conceding just one. Their positive goal difference of two reflects a solid defensive structure, which could be pivotal in this matchup. On the other hand, Austria Lustenau finds themselves in ninth place after two games, with no wins yet recorded. They have drawn one match and lost another, resulting in two goals scored and three conceded. Their negative goal difference underscores their struggles, particularly in maintaining defensive stability, which could be exploited by Sturm Graz in this encounter. According to the model, Sturm Graz has a strong chance of winning this match, with a win probability that favours them significantly. However, a potential caveat exists; if Austria Lustenau can improve their defensive organization and capitalize on any mistakes made by Sturm Graz, they could potentially turn the tide. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.4% probability.
Sturm Graz have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Sturm Graz win as the most likely scoreline at 14.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sturm Graz clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Sturm Graz are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.40 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.75 | 1.93 | |
| 1.35 | 5.00 | 7.60 | 1.46 | 2.39 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 8.00 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 1.37 | 5.39 | 8.02 | 1.54 | 2.58 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 4.69 | 7.05 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.35 | 4.80 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.55 | 1.46 | 2.39 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.32 | 4.90 | 7.50 | 1.50 | 2.35 | 1.76 | 1.88 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 1.38 | 4.75 | 7.40 | 1.53 | 2.47 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.80 | 1.49 | 2.45 | 1.74 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.00 | 1.50 | 2.37 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Sturm Graz leads 5-0)Sturm Graz has a perfect head-to-head record against Austria Lustenau, with 5 wins and 0 draws. The scorelines indicate a clear dominance, as Sturm Graz has won all encounters without conceding a goal, with four of the five matches ending in a two-goal margin or greater. Austria Lustenau has not managed to score against Sturm Graz in this stretch, highlighting a significant one-sided trend. The last victory for Austria Lustenau against Sturm Graz dates back to over a decade ago, further emphasizing Sturm Graz's control in this matchup.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | WWD |
| 5 |  Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | LDW |
| 6 | Austria Lustenau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 10 |  Ried | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | LLD |
| 11 |  WSG Wattens | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 12 |  TSV Hartberg | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSturm Graz have won 10 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat SCR Altach 1-0 and lost to Fenerbahçe 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 12D 6L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Austria Lustenau have won 1 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Austria Lustenau 2-1 and beat Krems / Rehberg 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 4D 4L from the last 13 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSturm Graz
No reported absences
Austria Lustenau
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Weinberger has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sturm Graz average 1.8 goals per match at home; Austria Lustenau 1.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Sturm Graz have generated 1.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sturm Graz player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.