Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Lask Linz. Sturm Graz currently sits in fourth place in the league, having played five matches with two wins, two draws, and one loss, accumulating eight points. Their goal tally shows some offensive capability with six goals scored, but they have also conceded five, highlighting a need for improvement in defence. On the other hand, Lask Linz is performing exceptionally well, positioned second in the standings with a perfect record of four wins from four matches, resulting in twelve points. They have an impressive goal difference of eleven, having scored twelve goals while conceding only one. This strong form underscores their attacking prowess and solid defensive structure, making them a formidable opponent. According to the model, Sturm Graz has a 38.6% chance of winning, while Lask Linz has a 35.1% chance, and there is a 26.3% probability of a draw. The prediction also suggests a likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored at 57.1% and both teams to score at 60.9%. However, a potential concern for Sturm Graz could be their inconsistency, as they have struggled to maintain form in recent matches. The full methodology behind this prediction, which utilizes expected goals and actual results through an in-house model, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Lask Linz have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Lask Linz are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.95 | 3.65 | 2.20 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| 3.44 | 3.92 | 1.90 | 1.43 | 2.48 | 1.44 | 2.55 | |
| 3.40 | 4.00 | 1.87 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 3.51 | 4.22 | 1.95 | 1.51 | 2.65 | — | — | |
| 2.89 | 3.42 | 2.04 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 3.80 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.90 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 3.43 | 3.92 | 1.92 | 1.43 | 2.48 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
Betano | 3.45 | 3.95 | 1.90 | 1.47 | 2.57 | 1.45 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.91 | 1.45 | 2.60 | 1.40 | 2.63 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sturm Graz leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz, Sturm Graz has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Lask Linz has secured 2 victories. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive encounters, with several matches ending in draws and close results. Notably, Sturm Graz has claimed a few decisive wins, such as a 4-2 and a 2-0, while Lask Linz's victories have been less frequent and varied, including a single win by a 3-1 margin. The most recent draw was in April 2026, highlighting a balanced rivalry with moments of dominance from Sturm Graz.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lask Linz | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rapid Vienna | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 14 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 11 | WLDWW |
| 5 |  WSG Wattens | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 | DWWLL |
| 6 |  TSV Hartberg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 | DWWLL |
| 10 |  Ried | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 | DLWLL |
| 11 |  Austria Lustenau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 | LLDWL |
| 12 |  SCR Altach | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | LLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSturm Graz have won 12 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lask Linz 2-1 and drew with Austria Lustenau 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 13D 7L from the last 39 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lask Linz have won 10 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Lask Linz 1-6 and beat Wolfsberger AC 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 5D 6L from the last 34 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSturm Graz4-4-2Confirmed
Lask Linz3-4-1-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSturm Graz
No reported absences
Lask Linz
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sturm Graz have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Lask Linz 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lask Linz have generated 2.30 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 68% of them. They put 7.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lask Linz player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.