Sunderland vs Fulham Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sunderland vs Fulham
Match Preview
The model favours Fulham to win against Sunderland, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fulham begins the season positioned fifth in the league, reflecting their competitiveness in the previous campaign. Despite having not played any matches yet, their recent form shows they have won two of their last five games, complemented by two draws. This suggests a level of resilience and capability to secure points, which could translate positively into the new season. On the other hand, Sunderland starts the season in tenth place, having finished their last five matches with a record of three wins and two losses. This indicates potential but also inconsistency, which could be a concern as they aim to build momentum in the new season. Their ability to convert chances into goals will be crucial, especially against a team like Fulham that has shown promise in recent performances. According to the model's output, Fulham has a stronger win probability compared to Sunderland. However, a caveat exists; if Sunderland can harness their home advantage effectively, they could pose a significant challenge. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is grounded in an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has provided this insight to help frame expectations for the match.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Sunderland manage games at home, conceding just 1.32 goals per match. Fulham score 1.14 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Sunderland have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Sunderland are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sunderland vs Fulham| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.33 | 3.75 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| 2.49 | 3.28 | 3.08 | 2.05 | 1.79 | 1.76 | 1.95 | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.10 | |
| 2.51 | 3.25 | 3.11 | 2.10 | 1.81 | — | — | |
| 2.41 | 3.08 | 2.78 | 2.07 | 1.81 | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 2.40 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.53 | 3.33 | 3.12 | 2.11 | 1.84 | 1.76 | 1.97 | |
| 2.43 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.02 | 1.78 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 2.40 | 3.25 | 3.05 | 2.05 | 1.82 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.05 | 2.05 | 1.78 | 1.80 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fulham leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Sunderland and Fulham, Fulham has won 5 times, Sunderland has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches, including four fixtures decided by a single goal. Notably, Sunderland's last victory over Fulham was in 2015, suggesting a challenging trend for them in this matchup. Overall, while both teams have claimed victories, Fulham has had the upper hand more recently, reflecting a somewhat lopsided dynamic in their encounters.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | DDW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 12 | Sunderland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | DWL |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 19 | Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSunderland have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sunderland 1-0 and beat Sunderland 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 11L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fulham have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sunderland 1-0 and drew with Malaga 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 14L from the last 29 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSunderland4-2-3-1Confirmed
Fulham4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersSunderland2
Fulham2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Salisbury has averaged 8.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Sunderland average 1.3 goals per match at home; Fulham 1.1 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sunderland have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 46% of their matches and averaging 1.3 goals per game. Sunderland player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
