Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene Prediction, Tips & Odds
Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene
Match Preview
The model favours Super Nova 2 to win against Smiltene, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Super Nova 2 currently sits in 7th place in the league, with a record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses from 19 matches. They have scored 26 goals while conceding 28, resulting in a negative goal difference of -2. Despite a recent dip in form with only one win in their last five matches, their overall performance this season suggests they are the stronger side. On the other hand, Smiltene is struggling significantly, positioned 13th in the league with only 2 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses. They have managed to score just 23 goals while conceding a staggering 56, leading to a goal difference of -33. Their recent form is concerning, having lost four of their last five matches, indicating ongoing difficulties in both attacking and defending. According to the model, Super Nova 2 has a win probability of approximately 65%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat to consider is that if Smiltene can produce an unexpected performance, they might capitalize on any defensive lapses from Super Nova 2. The full method of our analysis, which includes expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Super Nova 2 have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Super Nova 2 are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 3.90 | 3.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.82 | 3.69 | 3.28 | 1.39 | 2.64 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.53 | 1.48 | 2.46 | 1.49 | 2.48 | |
Betano | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.45 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Super Nova 2 leads 1-0)In their only previous encounter, Super Nova 2 defeated Smiltene with a score of 2-0. This result indicates a clear advantage for Super Nova 2, as they secured a decisive win without conceding any goals. The match was not particularly close, suggesting that Super Nova 2 was dominant in their meeting. Smiltene has not yet managed to earn a result against Super Nova 2, which may impact their confidence in future fixtures.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 89 | 17 | 72 | 54 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 60 | 23 | 37 | 51 | LWDWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 49 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 27 | 47 | WLWWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 37 | LLWWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 28 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 25 | LDLDL |
| 10 | Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 16 | WWLLL |
| 12 |  Tukums II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 15 | WLLLL |
| 13 |  JFK Ventspils | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 40 | -20 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSuper Nova 2 have won 4 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Super Nova 2 1-1 and lost to Super Nova 2 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 7D 7L from the last 20 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Smiltene have won 3 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to JDFS Alberts 3-2 and lost to Leevon / PPK 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 7D 20L from the last 32 games (16% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSuper Nova 2
No reported absences
Smiltene
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Super Nova 2 average 1.4 goals per match at home; Smiltene 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Super Nova 2 have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 30% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. Super Nova 2 player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
