Toluca vs FC Juarez Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toluca vs FC Juarez
Match Preview
The model favours Toluca to win against FC Juarez, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Toluca is currently in a strong position, sitting 5th in the league with 7 points from 4 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid attack, scoring 6 goals while conceding only 3, resulting in a positive goal difference of 3. With three wins in their last five matches, Toluca has demonstrated both resilience and offensive capability. On the other hand, FC Juarez is struggling at the bottom of the table in 18th place, having lost all four of their matches this season. They have managed to score just 2 goals while conceding a staggering 13, leading to a goal difference of -11. Their recent form shows only 2 wins in their last five matches, and the lack of consistency is a significant concern as they face a formidable opponent. The model indicates a high probability of a Toluca victory, with a projected score of 2-0 and a strong market expectation backing this outcome. However, a potential caveat exists; if Toluca fails to convert their chances or if FC Juarez finds an unexpected resurgence, the match could be more competitive than anticipated. The full method behind this prediction, which utilises expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Toluca have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Toluca win as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Toluca clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Toluca are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Toluca vs FC Juarez| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.28 | 5.90 | 8.50 | 1.38 | 3.00 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.27 | 5.60 | 8.80 | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.31 | 6.04 | 8.79 | 1.43 | 2.89 | — | — | |
| 1.28 | 5.42 | 7.43 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.25 | 5.00 | 7.50 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 1.30 | 6.00 | 8.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.28 | 5.60 | 8.75 | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.26 | 5.50 | 9.00 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.77 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 1.32 | 6.10 | 10.00 | 1.45 | 2.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 1.30 | 5.90 | 8.10 | 1.45 | 2.77 | 1.77 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.75 | 9.50 | 1.42 | 2.60 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Toluca leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Toluca and FC Juarez, Toluca has won 6 times, there have been 3 draws, and FC Juarez has won once. The scorelines indicate a generally strong advantage for Toluca, highlighted by several decisive victories, including a 4-0 win and a 3-0 win. The matches have also featured tight contests, with three draws showing that FC Juarez has been able to compete at times. However, FC Juarez's last victory in this matchup was some time ago, suggesting a trend of dominance by Toluca in recent encounters.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToluca have won 15 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Monterrey 2-0 and beat Leon 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 8D 11L from the last 39 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Juarez have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Juarez 2-1 and lost to Toluca 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 16L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedToluca4-2-3-1Confirmed
FC Juarez4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersToluca
No reported absences
FC Juarez
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Q. Contreras has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Toluca have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; FC Juarez 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Toluca have generated 2.07 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 7.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Toluca player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.