Toronto FC vs Charlotte Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toronto FC vs Charlotte
Match Preview
The model favours Toronto FC to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Charlotte. Despite their current position in 12th place, Toronto FC has shown potential for improvement this season. They have struggled with consistency, recording three wins, eight draws, and seven losses. However, their recent form indicates a slight uptick, with three draws in their last five matches suggesting they are becoming harder to beat. On the other hand, Charlotte sits in a more favorable 7th place and has had a stronger overall season with seven wins, four draws, and seven losses. Their recent form shows a solid performance, with three wins in their last five matches, which highlights their capacity to secure results. With a positive goal difference of +2, they have been effective in both scoring and defending, which could pose a challenge for Toronto. The model gives Toronto a 40% chance of winning, with a 25.5% probability of a draw and a 34.6% chance for Charlotte to win. Additionally, there is a 57.9% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and 61% for both teams to score. One caveat to consider is Toronto's struggle to convert draws into wins, which could impact their ability to secure the three points. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Charlotte have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Charlotte are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Toronto FC vs Charlotte| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.40 | 3.65 | 2.62 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.35 | 3.56 | 2.73 | 1.64 | 2.21 | 1.52 | 2.33 | |
| 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.63 | 1.57 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.80 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.63 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 3.60 | 2.87 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Charlotte leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Toronto FC and Charlotte shows Charlotte with 4 wins, Toronto FC with 3 wins, and 1 draw from their last 8 matches. This indicates a competitive rivalry, though Charlotte has edged ahead in victories. The scorelines reveal a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes; Charlotte secured two wins by 2-0 and one by 3-0, while Toronto's largest win was a 4-0 victory. The presence of a draw suggests some closely contested matches, but it has been a while since Toronto FC last triumphed against Charlotte in their last three encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 7 | Charlotte | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 2 | 25 | LWDWW |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 17 | DLDDL |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 17 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToronto FC have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Toronto FC 2-4 and lost to Toronto FC 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 10L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Charlotte have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Chicago Fire 2-1 and beat New York Red Bulls 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 5D 10L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersToronto FC
No reported absences
Charlotte
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Toronto FC have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Charlotte 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Charlotte have generated 1.61 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Charlotte player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
