Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 3-1 against Trans Narva. Flora currently sits in third place in the Meistriliiga standings, showcasing a strong season with 14 wins from 22 matches. Their goal-scoring ability is evident with 44 goals scored, averaging two goals per game, while their solid defence has conceded just 25 goals, giving them a positive goal difference of 19. In contrast, Trans Narva finds itself at the bottom of the table in 10th place, with a record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 17 losses after 24 matches. Their struggles are reflected in their goal difference of -37, with only 18 goals scored and a concerning 55 conceded. Recent form indicates a slight improvement with two wins in their last five matches, but their overall season performance suggests significant challenges ahead. The model indicates a high win probability for Flora Tallinn, as they aim to maintain their position in the top tier of the league. One key market percentage to note is their likelihood of winning, which stands at a strong rate given their current form and standings. However, if Trans Narva can capitalise on any defensive lapses from Flora, the outcome could be less predictable. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilises an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Flora Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.75 | 3.95 | 1.57 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 5.60 | 4.05 | 1.46 | 1.54 | 2.19 | 1.66 | 2.04 | |
| 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 5.62 | 4.23 | 1.51 | 1.59 | 2.27 | — | — | |
| 4.40 | 3.72 | 1.54 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.57 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.53 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 5.80 | 4.05 | 1.47 | 1.54 | 2.19 | 1.66 | 2.07 | |
| 4.80 | 4.10 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 2.33 | 1.56 | 2.18 | |
| 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.57 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.55 | 1.57 | 2.12 | — | — |
Superbet | 4.90 | 4.10 | 1.55 | 1.57 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 4.50 | 3.50 | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.94 | 1.50 | 1.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Trans Narva and Flora Tallinn, Flora Tallinn has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in draws, while Trans Narva has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a strong advantage for Flora Tallinn, highlighted by several heavy wins, including a 6-0 and 4-0 result. The matches have featured a mix of tight encounters, such as two 1-1 draws, but overall, Flora Tallinn has dominated the series. Trans Narva's last win over Flora Tallinn is not recorded in this sample, underscoring a significant challenge for them in this matchup.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTrans Narva have won 8 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 11. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Trans Narva 0-2 and beat Trans Narva 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 23L from the last 39 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Flora Tallinn have won 11 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tammeka 3-1 and beat Vaprus 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 2D 14L from the last 41 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTrans Narva
No reported absences
Flora Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Trans Narva average 1.4 goals per match at home; Flora Tallinn 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 61% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.