TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Tips & Odds
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against TSV Hartberg. Sturm Graz has shown exceptional form this season, winning all five of their last matches. This winning streak highlights their strong performance and resilience, making them a formidable opponent in this fixture. On the other hand, TSV Hartberg has had a solid run as well, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. While their form is commendable, it pales in comparison to Sturm Graz’s perfect record. Hartberg will need to elevate their game significantly to challenge the visitors effectively. The model predicts a win probability of approximately 65% for Sturm Graz, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat to consider is that if Hartberg can leverage their home advantage and disrupt Sturm Graz’s rhythm, they could pose a greater threat than anticipated. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Sturm Graz have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Sturm Graz are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.60 | 3.75 | 1.70 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 4.70 | 3.80 | 1.68 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.71 | 1.99 | |
| 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.67 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 4.89 | 3.91 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 4.51 | 3.62 | 1.58 | 1.73 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.70 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 4.75 | 3.75 | 1.70 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 4.65 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 5.30 | 3.80 | 1.58 | 1.77 | 1.90 | 1.78 | 1.87 | |
| 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 4.85 | 3.90 | 1.65 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Superbet | 4.70 | 3.80 | 1.67 | 1.72 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 1.69 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sturm Graz leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz, Sturm Graz has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in draws and Hartberg yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, with Sturm Graz achieving narrow wins in most encounters, as seen in the frequent 1-0 and 2-1 results. The matches have also featured a couple of low-scoring draws, but Hartberg's inability to win in this stretch highlights their struggles against Sturm Graz, who have not lost to them since 2023.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | WWD |
| 5 |  Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | LDW |
| 6 |  Austria Lustenau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 10 |  Ried | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | LLD |
| 11 |  WSG Wattens | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 12 | TSV Hartberg | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTSV Hartberg have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Austria Vienna 0-2 and lost to Sturm Graz 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 9L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sturm Graz have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat TSV Hartberg 0-2 and lost to Fenerbahçe 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 12D 6L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedTSV Hartberg4-3-3Confirmed
Sturm Graz4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersTSV Hartberg
No reported absences
Sturm Graz
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Weinberger has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
TSV Hartberg have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Sturm Graz 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sturm Graz have generated 1.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sturm Graz player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
