Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK
Match Preview
The model favours Leevon / PPK to win against Tukums II, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Leevon / PPK currently sits in third place in the league, boasting an impressive record of 12 wins from 17 matches. Their goal-scoring ability is evident with 31 goals scored, while they have maintained a solid defence, conceding only 20 goals. This combination of offensive strength and defensive resilience has contributed to their strong form, including five consecutive wins in their last matches. In contrast, Tukums II is struggling at the lower end of the table, positioned in 10th place with only 12 points from 16 matches. Their season has been challenging, with a record of just three wins, and they have conceded significantly more goals than they have scored, resulting in a goal difference of -24. Recent form shows only one victory in their last five matches, which highlights their difficulties in both scoring and defending. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 70% for Leevon / PPK, with Tukums II at around 10%. However, one potential caveat is that if Tukums II can find a way to improve their defensive organization, they might be able to disrupt Leevon / PPK's attacking rhythm. For a deeper understanding of how these predictions were made, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season to generate these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.7% probability.
Leevon / PPK have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Leevon / PPK win as the most likely scoreline at 11.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Leevon / PPK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.70 | 4.45 | 1.48 | 1.30 | 2.97 | 1.39 | 2.63 | |
| 4.30 | 4.23 | 1.52 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.50 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 2.75 | — | — | |
| 4.86 | 4.45 | 1.49 | 1.30 | 2.97 | 1.39 | 2.69 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Leevon / PPK leads 3-1)In the last five encounters between Tukums II and Leevon / PPK, Leevon / PPK leads with three wins, while Tukums II has one win and there has been one draw. The scorelines indicate a trend toward Leevon / PPK's favor, with two of their victories coming by more than one goal, including a notable 4-1 win. The matches have seen a mix of tight contests, such as the 2-2 draw and Tukums II's 2-1 victory, but overall, Leevon / PPK has demonstrated a stronger head-to-head performance. Tukums II last triumphed over Leevon / PPK in April 2025.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 86 | 16 | 70 | 51 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 58 | 19 | 39 | 51 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 46 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 46 | 21 | 25 | 44 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 37 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 28 | WLLWL |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 40 | -20 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Tukums II | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 59 | -36 | 12 | LLLLD |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 61 | -45 | 6 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTukums II have won 3 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Tukums II 0-3 and drew with Tukums II 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 19L from the last 29 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Leevon / PPK have won 9 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Leevon / PPK 1-1 and beat Tukums II 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 7D 6L from the last 33 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTukums II
No reported absences
Leevon / PPK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tukums II average 1.3 goals per match at home; Leevon / PPK 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Leevon / PPK have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 61% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Leevon / PPK player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.