Udinese vs Lecce Prediction, Tips & Odds
Udinese vs Lecce
Match Preview
The model favours Udinese to win the match against Lecce, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Udinese currently sits in 13th place in the Serie A standings, having secured only one win from their first five matches. Their goal difference of -3 highlights defensive vulnerabilities, with eight goals scored and eleven conceded. However, the team's recent form shows a slight improvement, with a win in their last match indicating potential for upward momentum. On the other hand, Lecce is positioned just above Udinese in 12th place and has managed two wins in their five fixtures. Despite this, their goal difference of -5 suggests they have struggled defensively, conceding ten goals while scoring only five. Lecce's form has been inconsistent, with two wins followed by three losses, indicating challenges in maintaining performance throughout the season. The model gives Udinese a win probability of 50.4%, while the chances for a draw stand at 26.9% and Lecce at 22.7%. One key market to note is that there is a 49.2% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. A potential caveat for Udinese is their shaky defence, which could be exploited by Lecce if they find their attacking rhythm. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on an in-house model that analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Udinese manage games at home, conceding just 1.24 goals per match. Lecce score 0.97 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Udinese have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Udinese clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Udinese are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Udinese vs Lecce| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.89 | 3.60 | 4.20 | 1.93 | 1.88 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.85 | 3.64 | 4.20 | 1.95 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.18 | 3.65 | 2.00 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.33 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.94 | 3.70 | 4.32 | 2.00 | 1.94 | 1.78 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 1.91 | 3.45 | 4.25 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Udinese leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Udinese and Lecce, Udinese has won 5 times, Lecce has 3 victories, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; five of the encounters ended with a one-goal margin. Notably, both teams have secured narrow wins, and the most recent match in 2026 saw Lecce winning 2-1, which highlights their ability to compete effectively. The overall record suggests a balanced matchup, with neither side dominating the other in recent history.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 | LWLLW |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 4 | LLLWD |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUdinese have won 6 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Udinese 0-1 and lost to Udinese 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 14L from the last 34 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lecce have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Lecce 3-0 and lost to Cagliari 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 16L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersUdinese
No reported absences
Lecce
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Udinese have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Lecce 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Udinese have generated 1.26 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Udinese player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
