Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Tips & Odds
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Match Preview
The model favours Borussia Dortmund to win against Union Berlin, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Dortmund is currently sitting at the top of the Bundesliga standings, having won all four of their matches this season. They have scored nine goals while conceding only two, resulting in a goal difference of plus seven. Their strong start indicates a well-functioning attack and a solid defensive unit. In contrast, Union Berlin is struggling at the bottom of the table, currently in 17th place with just one point from four matches. They have yet to secure a win this season, with a record of one draw and three losses. Their goal-scoring woes are evident, having netted only four times while conceding 17 goals, which has led to a goal difference of minus 13. This poor form reflects significant challenges for the team as they look to turn their season around. The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 65% win probability for this match. While Dortmund is in excellent form, a potential caveat for this prediction could be an unexpected slip-up in performance or an injury to a key player. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilises an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.0% probability.
Borussia Dortmund have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Borussia Dortmund win as the most likely scoreline at 12.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Borussia Dortmund are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.80 | 4.60 | 1.44 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.40 | |
| 6.00 | 4.75 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 6.56 | 5.12 | 1.50 | 1.39 | 2.90 | 1.54 | 2.35 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Borussia Dortmund leads 8-2)In the last 10 matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund has won 8 times, while Union Berlin has secured 2 victories with no draws. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided rivalry, with several heavy defeats for Union Berlin, including losses of 6-0 and 4-2. Union Berlin's last win against Dortmund came in October 2024, suggesting a trend of struggles in recent encounters. Overall, the data shows that Borussia Dortmund has dominated this matchup, reflecting a clear advantage in historical performance.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUnion Berlin have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Union Berlin 1-3 and drew with Union Berlin 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 15L from the last 31 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Borussia Dortmund have won 10 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Borussia Dortmund 0-1 and beat HEBC 0-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 2D 9L from the last 31 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersUnion Berlin
No reported absences
Borussia Dortmund
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Union Berlin have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Borussia Dortmund 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Borussia Dortmund have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Borussia Dortmund player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
