Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United Prediction, Tips & Odds
Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United
Match Preview
The model favours Union St. Gilloise to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 9th place, Union St. Gilloise has started the season positively with one win and one draw from their first two matches. They have scored five goals while conceding just one, resulting in a strong goal difference of four. This solid defensive record, combined with their attacking prowess, suggests they are capable of securing three points at home. On the other hand, Lommel United, positioned 7th, has played four matches, achieving two wins, one draw, and one loss. They have also demonstrated a balanced attack, scoring six goals, but their defensive record has been less impressive, conceding two goals. Their form over the last five matches shows they are struggling for consistency, with two wins but also two losses and a draw, which could hinder their chances against a resilient Union side. The model indicates Union St. Gilloise has a strong win probability, reflecting their solid start to the season and home advantage. However, the caveat is that if Lommel can find their attacking rhythm and exploit any defensive lapses, they could pose a threat. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Union St. Gilloise have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Union St. Gilloise win as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Union St. Gilloise clean sheets, in line with their 47% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Union St. Gilloise are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.18 | 6.95 | 12.75 | 1.38 | 2.64 | 1.94 | 1.75 | |
| 1.14 | 6.50 | 12.00 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.21 | 7.42 | 12.52 | 1.42 | 2.88 | — | — | |
| 1.20 | 5.99 | 10.12 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.20 | 6.50 | 12.00 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 1.18 | 6.00 | 11.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.19 | 7.35 | 13.70 | 1.38 | 2.64 | 1.95 | 1.76 | |
Betano | 1.23 | 7.10 | 14.00 | 1.45 | 2.82 | 1.98 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 1.18 | 7.00 | 13.00 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Union St. Gilloise leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Union St. Gilloise and Lommel United, Union St. Gilloise has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in a draw, while Lommel United has not secured a victory. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Union St. Gilloise, featuring several narrow wins, such as 2-1 and 3-2, alongside a couple of more decisive results like 4-2 and 2-0. Lommel United has struggled to find the back of the net, with no wins and only a few draws, highlighting their difficulties in overcoming Union St. Gilloise in this matchup.
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gent | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Union St. Gilloise | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club Brugge KV | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WLWWW |
| 4 |  Charleroi | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  Zulte Waregem | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 6 |  Standard Liege | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 | WWWDD |
| 9 | Lommel United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | LWWLD |
| 16 |  RAAL La Louvière | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 17 |  OH Leuven | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Kortrijk | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUnion St. Gilloise have won 17 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Union St. Gilloise 3-0 and drew with Union St. Gilloise 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 8D 3L from the last 34 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lommel United have won 5 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Cercle Brugge 0-1 and lost to OH Leuven 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 7L from the last 24 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedUnion St. Gilloise3-4-1-2Confirmed
Lommel United4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersUnion St. Gilloise
No reported absences
Lommel United
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Union St. Gilloise have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Lommel United 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Union St. Gilloise have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 68% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Union St. Gilloise player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
