Wales vs Denmark Prediction, Tips & Odds
Wales vs Denmark
Match Preview
Denmark enters this knockout match against Wales with a stronger recent competitive form, having secured four wins in their last eight outings, including a notable 4-0 victory over FYR Macedonia. In contrast, Wales has struggled, managing only two wins, with their most recent competitive results marred by three draws and two losses. This difference in form could play a crucial role as both teams vie for a spot in the next round of the UEFA Nations League. As both teams are starting their group stage, the stakes are high for this match. A win is essential for both sides to set a positive tone for the tournament, while a loss would mean elimination from this stage. With neither team reporting any unavailable players, both will be able to field their strongest lineups, making for a potentially thrilling contest. One caveat to consider is the fragmented nature of international play, as both teams have not had much time to train together. This could lead to inconsistencies in performance despite individual talent. Our analysis is based on the data available from various competitive fixtures, with the full method outlined by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
About the Teams
Wales
Profile data not available yet.
Denmark
Profile data not available yet.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Denmark have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Denmark are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Wales vs Denmark| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.94 | 3.66 | 1.98 | 1.81 | 2.02 | 1.67 | 2.08 | |
| 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 3.96 | 3.64 | 1.97 | 1.81 | 2.10 | — | — | |
| 3.59 | 3.43 | 1.93 | 1.80 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.95 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.94 | 3.66 | 1.98 | 1.84 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 2.11 | |
Betano | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.98 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.93 | 1.74 | 1.94 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Denmark leads 3-0)In their last three competitive encounters, Denmark has won all three matches against Wales, with a record of 0 wins for Wales and 3 wins for Denmark. The meetings took place between 2018 and 2021, with the most recent match occurring in June 2021. All matches were competitive fixtures, including the Euro Championship and UEFA Nations League, which adds some weight to the results. However, since the last match was over two years ago, it may not fully reflect the current dynamics between the two teams.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonWales have won 1 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Wales 1-1 and drew with Wales 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 3D 6L from the last 12 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Denmark have won 2 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Norway 3-2 and drew with Congo DR 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 2L from the last 12 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedWales4-2-3-1Confirmed
Denmark4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersWales
No reported absences
Denmark
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Irfan Peljto has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Wales have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Denmark 6.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Denmark have generated 2.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 7.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Denmark player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.