Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction, Tips & Odds
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
Match Preview
The model favours Werder Bremen to win against SC Paderborn 07, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 8th place, Werder Bremen has shown promising form this season with two wins, one draw, and one loss from their first four matches. They have scored eight goals while conceding the same number, indicating a balanced attack and defense. Their recent form, which includes three wins in the last five games, suggests they are building momentum. On the other hand, SC Paderborn 07 is in 12th place with just one win from their four matches, alongside one draw and two losses. They have struggled offensively, netting only three goals, while their defense has conceded five. This inconsistency in both scoring and defending has hindered their ability to climb the standings and gain confidence in their play. The model estimates a 60.3% probability of a Werder Bremen victory, with a 22.3% chance for a draw and a 17.4% chance for a Paderborn win. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match at 65.4%. However, a potential caveat for Werder Bremen lies in their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded as many goals as they have scored this season. The full method behind this prediction, based on expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Werder Bremen have been the stronger side, winning 34% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Werder Bremen win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Werder Bremen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.45 | |
| 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.61 | 4.51 | 5.75 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.52 | 2.40 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Werder Bremen leads 4-2)In the last nine matches between Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07, Werder Bremen has won 4 times, Paderborn has won 2, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several high-scoring encounters, such as Werder Bremen's 5-1 and 4-0 victories. However, the matches have also featured tight contests, exemplified by the 2-2 draws. Paderborn's last win against Werder Bremen came in August 2021, suggesting they have struggled to find consistent success in this matchup. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a mix of outcomes, with both sides sharing moments of dominance.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | WDWL |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | WLLD |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWerder Bremen have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Augsburg 3-2 and lost to Auxerre 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 14L from the last 29 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
SC Paderborn 07 have won 5 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat SC Paderborn 07 0-1 and lost to Borussia Dortmund 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 3L from the last 20 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersWerder Bremen
No reported absences
SC Paderborn 07
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Werder Bremen average 1.5 goals per match at home; SC Paderborn 07 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Werder Bremen have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 34% of their matches and averaging 1.5 goals per game. Werder Bremen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
