1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Tips & Odds
1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
Match Preview
The model favours Borussia Dortmund to win this match against 1899 Hoffenheim, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Dortmund starts the season in a strong position, having finished second in the previous campaign. Their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses over the last five matches, indicating some inconsistency but also a capacity to secure victories when needed. Key performance indicators from last season suggest they can maintain a competitive edge. Hoffenheim, currently positioned fifth, also enters the new season with a solid recent performance, recording three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. However, they will need to translate this form into the new season effectively, as they have yet to play a match this term. Their ability to score and defend will be crucial, especially considering the strong attacking prowess of Dortmund. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 60% for Dortmund, highlighting their status as favourites. However, one caveat is Hoffenheim's potential to exploit any early-season rustiness from Dortmund, which could lead to an unexpected outcome. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction methodology, including expected goals and actual results, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates these factors comprehensively.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Borussia Dortmund have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Borussia Dortmund are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.82 | 3.80 | 2.20 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.71 | 3.85 | 2.48 | 1.43 | 2.66 | 1.38 | 2.80 | |
| 2.88 | 3.90 | 2.30 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.68 | 3.87 | 2.48 | 1.46 | 2.76 | — | — | |
| 2.61 | 3.34 | 2.23 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.75 | |
| 2.62 | 3.75 | 2.45 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.74 | 3.92 | 2.53 | 1.43 | 2.66 | 1.38 | 2.85 | |
| 2.88 | 3.80 | 2.16 | 1.43 | 2.75 | 1.38 | 2.85 | |
Betano | 2.92 | 3.80 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.42 | 2.75 |
Superbet | 2.90 | 3.85 | 2.27 | 1.48 | 2.67 | 1.43 | 2.77 |
BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.90 | 2.40 | 1.43 | 2.55 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Borussia Dortmund leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund leads with 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 wins for Hoffenheim. The scorelines suggest a competitive edge for Dortmund, with several matches ending in narrow victories such as 2-1 and 1-0. Hoffenheim's victories have been limited, with their last win occurring in April 2026. The matches have featured a mix of scoring patterns, though Dortmund has often managed to keep Hoffenheim at bay, indicating a generally one-sided historical rivalry.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 16 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season1899 Hoffenheim have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Borussia Dortmund 2-3 and beat Karlsruher SC 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 9L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Borussia Dortmund have won 10 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Borussia Dortmund 2-3 and beat HEBC 0-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 2D 9L from the last 29 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Confirmed1899 Hoffenheim4-4-2Confirmed
Borussia Dortmund3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 players1899 Hoffenheim2
Borussia Dortmund7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Jollenbeck has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Jollenbeck to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
1899 Hoffenheim have averaged 11.0 corners per match at home; Borussia Dortmund 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Borussia Dortmund have generated 1.51 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Borussia Dortmund player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
